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The Fred Report - Mid Week Update April 18, 2012

author/source: Fred Meissner, CMT

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The FRED Report – Financial Research, Education & Data

Mid Week Update


Volume 4, Issue 32

April 18, 2012


Download PDF Version here

Update of Market View

So far, the markets are acting about as expected, with stocks up and bonds down. We feel that this week should continue about the same, i.e. choppy with a down day Wednesday, after an up open, and bonds ultimately down on the week. No change in or views as expressed in the weekly letter in other words. It is worth noting that the SPY, in spite of all this volatility, is where it was in mid March – i.e. no net progress in a month. As we said in the Weekly Review, surprises are likely to be on the upside, based on sentiment and other condition indicators, and we continue to focus on a summer rally, whether or not the SPY declines to 134 – 132 over the next few weeks. We suggested adding some cash back in on Monday, and would add the rest above 143.50 on SPY.
In other markets, we see the Japanese Yen falling sharply while the Euro is giving ground gradually. The dollar continues to look attractive overall. Gold is flat and still looks like a bottom is forming. There are no real changes to our views. We show daily FXY and FXE below, as we have not looked at these markets in a while.

weekly_midweek_041812 weekly_midweek_041812 weekly_midweek_041812

Other Points of Interest   

We have had numerous questions on AAPL, so we show daily and weekly charts below. We call attention to the weekly chart and note that our 3 week sell rule has been triggered and suggest selling some AAPL in here. Support on the stock is at 550 and should it fall below there would sell more. The stock has not strictly gone parabolic, but the chart and sentiment on this name suggest there may be more risk in the name.

weekly_midweek_041812 weekly_midweek_041812


Fred Meissner is primarily responsible for the research in this report and certifies that: (1) all of the views expressed in this research accurately reflect his personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and (2) no part of his compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or view expressed him in this research.
This report is for your information only and is not an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, the securities or instruments named or described in this report.  Interested parties are advised to contact the entity with which they deal, or the entity that provided this report to them, if they desire further information.  The information in this report has been obtained or derived from sources believed by Fredco Holdings, Inc. to be reliable, but Fredco Holdings, Inc. does not represent that this information is accurate or complete.  Any opinions or estimates contained in this report represent the judgment of Fredco Holdings, Inc.  at this time and are subject to change without notice.  Fredco Holdings, Inc.  or its employees, officers, directors, principals, agents, affiliates or adviser may from time to time provide advice with respect to, acquire, short sell, hold or sell a position in, the securities or instruments named or described in this report.
Fredco Holdings, Inc. does not have investment banking relationships with any of the companies mentioned in this report and does not conduct investment banking business, in general.  Fredco Holdings, Inc.  and its employees do not receive compensation of any kind from any of the companies in this report.  Fredco Holdings, Inc. , its directors,  officers, principals, agents, advisers, affiliates and employees may maintain a financial position in the securities mentioned in this report, provided however that no buying or selling  activity will be taken with respect to a security referenced in a report by such parties within three days of such report’s publication.
The information contained herein was prepared by Fredco Holdings, Inc., which is solely responsible for the contents of this report.
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