The Fred Report - Mid Week Update September 09, 2010While we think the market can continue to advance here we are, in a way, in “no man’s land”. Individual stocks are acting tough here – we see all sorts of weird action, and this is normal for this type of market. As traders, we do not want to over commit, and rather let some opportunities present themselves. – they always do. We would be excited about a move back to the 118 area for the GLD, and would add to positions there. The Fred Report - Weekly September 7, 2010While we expect a bit of consolidation and a possible move back down to 106, after this the SPY should move through the 114 area. Ideal would be a rally back to 106 for the TLT followed by a break of 102. We expect a pullback in GLD to 117 or so over the next couple of months and will use that to add to positions, while retaining a long-term position in the metal.The Fred Report - Mid Week Update September 01, 2010I would say that a few more days of this action would make me progressively more nervous. We will become a bit more short-term positive on a move above 107 on the SPY, and a move below 104 would be a negative. The Fred Report - Weekly August 30, 2010We have a small buy signal on the US stock market, but caution people to use risk management as the SPY remains in a downtrend until 114 is exceeded. This has been a tough market for us, as the TLT has moved higher than we figured (we thought the peak was 103), but our strategy of buying the LQD instead of the TLT looks to us to still be correct, and should the TLT move below 97.50 it looks to test the 92 area, or even lower. Commodity markets are hanging in there so far, but we have concerns about seasonal weakness into the fall.The Fred Report - Mid Week Update August 25, 2010When I look at most of the indicators the market still looks ok. Buy signal from the second of July has run its course. Sentiment remains bearish, but can get more bearish. Our plan since mid August has been to get aggressive on the long side above 114 on the SPY, and this remains my favored approach for now. At the same time, I do not see big opportunity on the short side of the market, in spite of the potential for a test of the 95 – 90 area on the SPY, as we have mentioned. The Fred Report - Weekly August 23, 2010It looks as if we are set to rally and challenge the resistance in the 114 area on SPY. Should we go through 114 we could have significant upside. Weekly NY Advance/Decline figures were positive, and NASADAQ figures were only slightly negative. The commodity markets have traded back down into support and the seasonally favorable period for oil is fast coming to an end. The Dollar looks to have held the 80.00 area and could test 85 or higher. The Fred Report - Mid Week Update August 18, 2010What is happening is this action is allowing the short-term stochastics to fall back into the buy area. We would be more bullish if the market had a relatively flat close week over week, i.e. the SPY was to retrace a bit and close between 108 and 109. We also note that until the SPY trades through the 114 area, there is above average risk, although there are more and more clues suggesting that we will, in fact, trade higher.The Fred Report - Weekly August 16, 2010The US stock market failed at resistance last week, but overall still looks reasonably positive. We have been looking for, and are still looking for, rates to rise into the fall. We continue to like Gold longer-term and the short-term chart, while overbought, is starting to look a bit better.The Fred Report - Mid Week Update August 11, 2010Overall, what seems to be happening is that the market is challenging strong resistance, and because of the strength of this area, it will take a bit longer to go through, assuming it does. I think a false breakout is unlikely, because of the high levels of bearish sentiment.The Fred Report - Weekly August 9, 2010We would be a bit defensive here, and use risk management, but frankly would be surprised if the market has peaked short-term. It is unlikely that agricultural commodities have a lot more upside from this juncture. We like gold as well, but a big move may not happen until late fall.
The Fred Report - Mid Week Update August 4, 2010The market is short-term overbought. Overall, indicators look positive and we should see more advancement. The Dollar (DXY) has broken below 82.00 and is on support at the 80 area. Should this break, a test of 76 or so cannot be ruled out. The XLI and XLB exceeded June 21 highs while the market has not. This suggests the economy remains in recovery mode, and the consensus is for economic weakness.The Fred Report - Weekly August 2, 2010We remain with our bullish stance, and believe that the first part of August could end up being stronger than generally expected. We continue to expect rates to come down but have mentioned, and continue to mention that this should not occur until fall – and so many are short that this is bound to be a choppy and difficult market until then. The USO has built a base and should move above 36 this week.The Fred Report - Mid Week Update July 28, 2010Internal indicators look positive longer-term, but are short-term overbought. Gold (and the GLD), has declined to our forecast 114 area, and indeed has closed below it. If gold is going to rally, it should do so in the next two or three days. If it does not, a move to the 108 GLD area is possible. We remain positive on the USO and especially on the UNG. Bonds have a seasonal tendency to drop in the fall and a couple more months of topping action would not be out of the question, and indeed is likely.The Fred Report - Weekly July 26, 2010
We remain bullish, but can see some choppy action as recent gains are consolidated. Our best guess is that the TLT and bonds will meander around here for a while – and then rates will rise into the fall. Oil and gas both look like further advance is in store this summer. We would tend to de-emphasize Japan, and focus on the “growthier” areas of Asia.
The Fred Report - Mid Week Update July 21, 2010Tuesday’s action was a classic outside day positive reversal, with a lower low and higher high than the previous day. Market indicators continue to improve, and we expect further advance. We continue to expect that the July lows were significant, and could even turn out to be the low for 2010.The Fred Report - Weekly July 19, 2010
We note that Transportation stocks, the Mid-caps, and other indexes still remain in positive configurations. While the bonds still look weak chart-wise to us, our accumulation model suggests that they still have a bit more choppiness before embarking on a sustained move to the downside. We expect a test of 115 to 114 on the GLD. We continue to like currencies vs. the dollar, especially the Yen (FXY).
The Fred Report - Mid Week Update July 14, 2010
We remain somewhat overbought short-term, but are handling it well and look for the upmove to continue. The Dollar yesterday had an outside day to the downside. This is a negative configuration, and suggests that our objective of 82 may be too low.
The Fred Report - Weekly July 12, 2010While we are somewhat overbought short-term, this rally could continue after some consolidation (or simply continue without a pullback at the first part of this week), as weekly indicators are still, by and large, in buy territory. The TLT has now broken back below 100, and this move could take it back to 92 or even lower by this fall. The DBC and the CRB Index both have bottoming patterns suggesting a rally in commodities is going to occur.The Fred Report - Mid Week Update July 8, 2010A correction of Wednesday’s up move, especially a churning correction, would be welcome and not a problem. We are still interested in mid-cap stocks (MDY), and think there will be longer-term out performance in this area. The ingredients for a strong up move are certainly a “clear and present possibility”. We continue to like Gold longer-term, but expect to see choppiness over the next month or so.The Fred Report - Weekly July 6, 2010We expect a choppy, but ultimately up week in stocks and think a tradable low has arrived. A close below 100 on the TLT would tend to confirm a false breakout, and could lead to a decline in bonds, and a rise in rates, into the fall. Should the USO move back above 35, a move towards 40 could occur. The dollar looks to have peaked, and the Euro may have bottomed.
