The Fred Report - Weekly August 16, 2010The US stock market failed at resistance last week, but overall still looks reasonably positive. We have been looking for, and are still looking for, rates to rise into the fall. We continue to like Gold longer-term and the short-term chart, while overbought, is starting to look a bit better.The Fred Report - Mid Week Update August 11, 2010Overall, what seems to be happening is that the market is challenging strong resistance, and because of the strength of this area, it will take a bit longer to go through, assuming it does. I think a false breakout is unlikely, because of the high levels of bearish sentiment.The Fred Report - Weekly August 9, 2010We would be a bit defensive here, and use risk management, but frankly would be surprised if the market has peaked short-term. It is unlikely that agricultural commodities have a lot more upside from this juncture. We like gold as well, but a big move may not happen until late fall.
The Fred Report - Mid Week Update August 4, 2010The market is short-term overbought. Overall, indicators look positive and we should see more advancement. The Dollar (DXY) has broken below 82.00 and is on support at the 80 area. Should this break, a test of 76 or so cannot be ruled out. The XLI and XLB exceeded June 21 highs while the market has not. This suggests the economy remains in recovery mode, and the consensus is for economic weakness.The Fred Report - Weekly August 2, 2010We remain with our bullish stance, and believe that the first part of August could end up being stronger than generally expected. We continue to expect rates to come down but have mentioned, and continue to mention that this should not occur until fall – and so many are short that this is bound to be a choppy and difficult market until then. The USO has built a base and should move above 36 this week.The Fred Report - Mid Week Update July 28, 2010Internal indicators look positive longer-term, but are short-term overbought. Gold (and the GLD), has declined to our forecast 114 area, and indeed has closed below it. If gold is going to rally, it should do so in the next two or three days. If it does not, a move to the 108 GLD area is possible. We remain positive on the USO and especially on the UNG. Bonds have a seasonal tendency to drop in the fall and a couple more months of topping action would not be out of the question, and indeed is likely.The Fred Report - Weekly July 26, 2010
We remain bullish, but can see some choppy action as recent gains are consolidated. Our best guess is that the TLT and bonds will meander around here for a while – and then rates will rise into the fall. Oil and gas both look like further advance is in store this summer. We would tend to de-emphasize Japan, and focus on the “growthier” areas of Asia.
The Fred Report - Mid Week Update July 21, 2010Tuesday’s action was a classic outside day positive reversal, with a lower low and higher high than the previous day. Market indicators continue to improve, and we expect further advance. We continue to expect that the July lows were significant, and could even turn out to be the low for 2010.The Fred Report - Weekly July 19, 2010
We note that Transportation stocks, the Mid-caps, and other indexes still remain in positive configurations. While the bonds still look weak chart-wise to us, our accumulation model suggests that they still have a bit more choppiness before embarking on a sustained move to the downside. We expect a test of 115 to 114 on the GLD. We continue to like currencies vs. the dollar, especially the Yen (FXY).
The Fred Report - Mid Week Update July 14, 2010
We remain somewhat overbought short-term, but are handling it well and look for the upmove to continue. The Dollar yesterday had an outside day to the downside. This is a negative configuration, and suggests that our objective of 82 may be too low.
The Fred Report - Weekly July 12, 2010While we are somewhat overbought short-term, this rally could continue after some consolidation (or simply continue without a pullback at the first part of this week), as weekly indicators are still, by and large, in buy territory. The TLT has now broken back below 100, and this move could take it back to 92 or even lower by this fall. The DBC and the CRB Index both have bottoming patterns suggesting a rally in commodities is going to occur.The Fred Report - Mid Week Update July 8, 2010A correction of Wednesday’s up move, especially a churning correction, would be welcome and not a problem. We are still interested in mid-cap stocks (MDY), and think there will be longer-term out performance in this area. The ingredients for a strong up move are certainly a “clear and present possibility”. We continue to like Gold longer-term, but expect to see choppiness over the next month or so.The Fred Report - Weekly July 6, 2010We expect a choppy, but ultimately up week in stocks and think a tradable low has arrived. A close below 100 on the TLT would tend to confirm a false breakout, and could lead to a decline in bonds, and a rise in rates, into the fall. Should the USO move back above 35, a move towards 40 could occur. The dollar looks to have peaked, and the Euro may have bottomed.The Fred Report - Mid Week Update June 30, 2010We continue to see favorable out performance on the part of the MDY, IWM, and IYT and this remains a factor in our positive outlook. China is actually outperforming the US on this decline.The Fred Report - Weekly June 28, 2010While this is a difficult market short-term, we will likely advocate taking a bit more risk this week, even if the market is stronger than we would like to see. We feel the USO could advance to test the 37 to 38 area here. The currency markets are in interesting positions and it appears to me that the Euro (FXE) has bottomed and the Dollar peaked, at least short-term.The Fred Report - Mid Week Update June 23, 2010Tuesday’s action continued the decline and has resulted in a short-term oversold condition. We are essentially looking for choppy action now, and a decent buy signal either after a down June monthly close (and possibly a down July close). Advisors should use this drop to slowly add stock positions (or fund positions, esp. in small and mid-cap stocks), looking for an advance later this summer.The Fred Report - Weekly June 21, 2010The stock market has improved, but still looks like some short-term choppiness is likely. We remain concerned about our monthly indicators, which are much longer-term in nature. If they can get a bit more oversold here, we will have much more fuel for a strong rally. We continue to expect the TLT to fall, and penetration of the 96 area should lead to a decline to 94 to 92 on that ETF. Longer-term, we are in the inflation, and not deflation camp – so gold remains a favorite investment. The Fred Report - Mid Week Update June 16, 2010It is options expiration so volatility is to be expected, but we still see a short-term top as being possible and one sign of that would be a big up open tomorrow that churns and then sells off. The FXE is rallying and could fill the gap that is in the 124 area.The Fred Report - Weekly June 14, 2010We have been looking for a better buying opportunity later this summer, and for now we remain cautious. We still think the markets will be higher than here at the end of the year. We note that the DBC looks to be putting in a bottom and should it rally above 22.00 that would be a strong indication that these commodities have bottomed.The Fred Report - Mid Week Update June 9, 2010
Right now, both daily and weekly 5 and 20 moving averages are negative. At this time, it appears that, should the market advance immediately, these averages will take a while to cross, which suggests that rallies here are likely to be less than robust.
