The Fred Report - Mid Week Update June 30, 2010We continue to see favorable out performance on the part of the MDY, IWM, and IYT and this remains a factor in our positive outlook. China is actually outperforming the US on this decline.The Fred Report - Weekly June 28, 2010While this is a difficult market short-term, we will likely advocate taking a bit more risk this week, even if the market is stronger than we would like to see. We feel the USO could advance to test the 37 to 38 area here. The currency markets are in interesting positions and it appears to me that the Euro (FXE) has bottomed and the Dollar peaked, at least short-term.The Fred Report - Mid Week Update June 23, 2010Tuesday’s action continued the decline and has resulted in a short-term oversold condition. We are essentially looking for choppy action now, and a decent buy signal either after a down June monthly close (and possibly a down July close). Advisors should use this drop to slowly add stock positions (or fund positions, esp. in small and mid-cap stocks), looking for an advance later this summer.The Fred Report - Weekly June 21, 2010The stock market has improved, but still looks like some short-term choppiness is likely. We remain concerned about our monthly indicators, which are much longer-term in nature. If they can get a bit more oversold here, we will have much more fuel for a strong rally. We continue to expect the TLT to fall, and penetration of the 96 area should lead to a decline to 94 to 92 on that ETF. Longer-term, we are in the inflation, and not deflation camp – so gold remains a favorite investment. The Fred Report - Mid Week Update June 16, 2010It is options expiration so volatility is to be expected, but we still see a short-term top as being possible and one sign of that would be a big up open tomorrow that churns and then sells off. The FXE is rallying and could fill the gap that is in the 124 area.The Fred Report - Weekly June 14, 2010We have been looking for a better buying opportunity later this summer, and for now we remain cautious. We still think the markets will be higher than here at the end of the year. We note that the DBC looks to be putting in a bottom and should it rally above 22.00 that would be a strong indication that these commodities have bottomed.The Fred Report - Mid Week Update June 9, 2010
Right now, both daily and weekly 5 and 20 moving averages are negative. At this time, it appears that, should the market advance immediately, these averages will take a while to cross, which suggests that rallies here are likely to be less than robust.
The Fred Report - Weekly June 7, 2010We continue to expect a choppy market with sharp rallies, but a longer-term downward bias for the next couple of months. Aggressive advisors not afraid to take risks may now want to add international bond exposure again. Our accumulation model is starting to show some selling in gold on this rally.The Fred Report - Mid Week Update June 3, 2010We certainly could see a rally for the first two weeks of June, which could then fall off into the end of the month. We feel that this correction (which we feel is still underway) is a correction in a bull move, and that higher highs for the year will result.The Fred Report - Weekly June 1, 2010We note that daily indicators are oversold enough to produce a one to two week rally at this point. We continue to suggest taking some capital gains in bond positions at this juncture. As long as the GLD remains above the 115 area we would expect new highs through summer at least. For now we look for a pullback in the dollar. The Fred Report - Mid Week Update May 26, 2010Short–term indicators look like a good trading rally should now occur. It would be ideal to see the market stabilize here and build a base where we chop around for enough time to get the monthly and weekly indicators down into a buying zone. Traditionally, stocks rally some into Memorial Day weekend.The Fred Report - Weekly May 24, 2010While we remain cautious a few moths out, we can still see a positive end to 2010. We continue to look for new highs in Gold through summer and again in the winter. Overall, we expect speculative money to move into small and mid cap US stocks, and away from international markets for a while.The Fred Report - Mid Week Update May 19, 2010The momentum on the downside coming into May was stronger to the downside than expected. We see weakness in Financials, Healthcare, as well as Utilities. For traders, should close below SPX 1110 we would cover trading shorts.The Fred Report - Weekly May 17, 2010This week is options expiration, and is the first one in a while where there has been a surge in put buying in the equity indexes. Often this leads to very volatile trading. We note that Friday’s rally on the TLT filled a gap, and if this market turns down this may signal a move back down to the bottom end of the trading range. Indicators on oil are suggesting at best a weak rally, and likely no rally at all.The Fred Report - Mid Week Update May 12, 2010Small and mid cap indexes area still showing leadership. We note that commodities still look like leadership.The Fred Report - Weekly May 10, 2010This is the first correction where the SPY has outperformed the Russell and smaller cap indexes. TLT should start to come down from this level. Accumulation models look strong, the commodity is now oversold, and we are right within the seasonal window we have been looking at for a rally to begin.The Fred Report - Mid Week Update May 05, 2010We are in the areas both in time and price where it makes sense for a rally to start. We continue to feel that this summer rally (should it in fact occur) will be led more by commodities, consumer discretionary type stocks, and industrials and less by financials and healthcare.The Fred Report - Weekly May 03, 2010The stock market is now in the window of the time period we have been looking for to make the low that would begin a summer rally led by commodities and commodity related stocks. Now is probably the time to add some hedges (fixed income), while realizing that the rate rise we have mentioned this year could occur this fall, and not now. We note that the Euro may have recently staged a false breakdown.The Fred Report - Mid Week Update April 28, 2010The stock market has started to correct, which is what we have been hoping for over the last week or two, and we continue to look for a summer rally led by commodity names. We continue to look for choppy action into early May. The FXE has hit new lows. This represents the dollar’s best chance to rally and test the 86 area.The Fred Report - Weekly April 26, 2010The summer rally may have started earlier than expected. Overall, this market is acting like the 1975 to 1980 period – and this same sort of bullish sentiment was a feature of that time as well. The late 1970’s also showed strong out-performance by small and mid cap stocks, just as we are seeing now. The smaller cap ETF’s (HAO and JOF respectively) continue to outperform and we consider this an indication that the world economy continues to improve.
