Weekly Report

We still expect a rally in stocks, and more decline in Interest rates. Although rates are rising a bit, REITs are still up.

QQQ is on support in the 700 to 690-area, and a little more time should get us oversold. Below 70 would suggest the rally in Brent is over.

GLD has moved below and then back above 370 – our benchmark number. This means it is a tad weaker than we have been expecting. Resistance here is 378, then 385. If above these prices then GLD can hit our targets of 412. If we wanted to own stocks and not the miners ETF, we would use NEM and AU.

Ideally, QQQ will hold 700 while this choppiness plays out. Now XBI and IBB have come out of the second consolidation and look to put on another big move.

For the record, a double top would be confirmed by a move below 735, and that would suggest consolidation unless 722 breaks as well. As long as GLD can hold 370, the chances of a test of 350 have gone down. A move above 390 would set up a test of 400 to 412, where traders should sell if it can get there.

If money comes out of these leadership names it will likely move more into some of the Value and Dividend names. What these are saying is that the curve may steepen, which would be good for the economy.

SPX (S&P 500 Index) did close down for the month of June, but not enough to generate the big oversold readings we had hoped for. Oil prices could rally here, which might mean some issues with stocks – we need to watch for this. You can start to buy GLD now – ideally between here and 350. This market may not make new highs, but it could test the 410 to 412 area.

Stocks are still trading a bit stronger than we hoped for coming into the end of June, but at least (so far!) we are down for the month on the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ 100. As long as TLT can stay above 85 interest rates have probably peaked for the year. There is some short-term resistance in the 102-area on the Dollar, but this should break and send the Dollar to 110, our next intermediate-term target, by the end of 2026.

We have had some sporadic sharp drops, the market has been stronger than anticipated. From a fundamental perspective this must mean the economy is stronger than most pundits believe. We would avoid the long side of GLD and SLV until we actually get a buy signal.

The second half of 2026 should be up, but we believe there should be rotation, and broadening out of the market. If we don’t see this, there could be problems.