Weekly Report

This rally might be starting early – we are not sure this is the case, however, and trader should use this rally to raise cash into Friday. We have been focusing on Small Cap Value, and it looks to be time to add growth back as well. We think that Small Cap will be a leader in the second part of 2026.

When you take a “10,000” foot view of things it is amazing that we are not down more. We would buy OIH and CRAK on dips if oil prices decline and want to have these in portfolios as part of an energy allocation.

This might turn into a short-term rally and then sell on the news event. TLT still looks to rally and our targets in the 92-area remain.

We still are looking for another decline into the end of April. On last Thursday’s Conference Call we discussed the possibility that Small Cap stocks perform well in the second half of 2026, perhaps even becoming new leadership.

Indicator formation suggests there should be more downside. We still think there will be problems into April.

Our plan has been to nibble at attractive names with the idea that we will be invested around April expiration and into May. IYW could test 166, and if that breaks a test of 158 is possible. All rate indexes broke out of long-term downtrends that had been in effect since 1995.

Ideally the month end close on GLD will be in this 400-area or a bit below. DBC’s advance should end in the next couple of months, which would suggest oil prices should come down.

This market should try and bounce here but we think this is another selling opportunity, and we should turn and make new lows into April. We think the current Dollar consolidation has an excellent chance of resolving itself to the upside.

Remember it is options expiration this Friday and a quadruple witching so we could start to see some odd market behavior. TLT has bounced off the lower end of our support range. Back above 88.30 targets the 92 area.
GLD and SLV should be a good bit lower by the end of March, and possibly April as well.

We are seeing some oversold readings that have not done much good for the upside. The equity markets may be shifting from a trading range to a downtrend.