Weekly Report

TLT is rallying and if it moves through 82.50 resistance, the 84-area is possible. GLD is holding support and should attempt a rally soon. $GASO has support around 3.38, then 3.00. If these areas break down the next stop would be the low around 2.80.

As we mentioned before, our big concern has been that the daily stochastic becomes overbought, sparking a market correction. This seems unlikely at this time. Oil service companies should benefit even if the price of oil drops, as we believe it will.

We are long TLT with stops in the 79-ara and will take these off or lower them as there could be volatility. GLD is holding our support in the 394-area, barely. Much below 390 would suggest the advance is over for this month at least.

The breadth indications we mentioned last week have gotten worse, so again we suggest very limited buying until we get the FED news as there could be a sharp downdraft on that news.

Last week’s breadth numbers were weaker than we thought they should be, so we continue to advise some caution here, and as we mentioned last week, if you want to hedge do it soon. Value has had a strong move in 2026, while Growth has gone sideways, consolidating gains of the last few years.

We are holding support on equities so far.

September is often the worst month of the year, according to several seasonal studies, and the setup coming into the month is interesting from a technical perspective. Our view on Gold is that there should be some consolidation in either event, and right now our number to proclaim a new bull is a move above 440 on GLD.

Three growth and technology ETFs (IYW, QQQ, SPHB) have started to underperform SPY, suggesting the move toward value names is picking up some steam. We have been treating the TYX as a false breakout above 53 or so, and we are back below that area. The basic Chinese economy is stronger than the tech sector (different from the US), and that we should be seeing signs of Chinese economic improvement and strength over the next few months.

We would like to see a down open that tests these areas, followed by a rally into Friday. TLT and SPTL both closed positive after down opens, and if we are correct, we are going to rally for the remainder of the week.

Our forecast has been for a strong finish to August, and this week is expiration – we could see some fireworks! We have an interesting set of signals on bonds such rates should fall from now into the end of August, and possibly into the end of the year.