Weekly Report

SPY and QQQ have made new highs. IJR has rallied as well, and above 141 would target a move to new highs. While we think a bond rally could continue through yearend, we are still concerned that rates will be higher in 2027.

We would be buyers in here, unless SPY can move below 750, and QQQ below 700. There are some indications that a short to intermediate-term bond rally could start soon.

We are holding up well, but there is still some risk in this market. Much below 86.20 on WTIC would suggest this market would test 80 at least.

Frankly, the stock indexes look positive and a big decline seems unlikely, but we want clients to be aware – if prices start to pull back here let them come to you.

TLT is rallying and if it moves through 82.50 resistance, the 84-area is possible. GLD is holding support and should attempt a rally soon. $GASO has support around 3.38, then 3.00. If these areas break down the next stop would be the low around 2.80.

As we mentioned before, our big concern has been that the daily stochastic becomes overbought, sparking a market correction. This seems unlikely at this time. Oil service companies should benefit even if the price of oil drops, as we believe it will.

We are long TLT with stops in the 79-ara and will take these off or lower them as there could be volatility. GLD is holding our support in the 394-area, barely. Much below 390 would suggest the advance is over for this month at least.

The breadth indications we mentioned last week have gotten worse, so again we suggest very limited buying until we get the FED news as there could be a sharp downdraft on that news.

Last week’s breadth numbers were weaker than we thought they should be, so we continue to advise some caution here, and as we mentioned last week, if you want to hedge do it soon. Value has had a strong move in 2026, while Growth has gone sideways, consolidating gains of the last few years.

We are holding support on equities so far.