Special Research Articles

Using % Bears Condition Indicator – by Fred Meissner, CMT This month’s research piece looks at our Investors Intelligence % Bears indicator. As long time subscribers know, we break the market down into three basic market principles: (1) Internal Momentum, (2) External Momentum, and (3) Sentiment. Of these three principles, … Read more

This month’s research piece is a paper on Relative Price (also known as Relative Strength) analysis that won the Charles Dow award (given by the Market Technicians Association and Barron’s) in 2007. The author, Charlie Kirkpatrick, has been a good friend of mine for years. The merits of Relative Price … Read more

This month’s research piece is a bit different in nature from those we usually do. Louise Yamada, a good friend from my  Robinson – Humphrey/Smith Barney days, has generously contributed a report from her company, Louise Yamada Technical Research Advisors, LLC. This report suggests a bear market in bonds is … Read more

We will do this month’s research piece on seasonality analysis. I think most readers know what seasonality analysis is, but what makes it interesting is that this type of analysis has been traditionally applied to individual futures contracts, and not necessarily to ETFs. One thing about commodities that is essential … Read more

When Technical Market Analysts get together, the talk often turns to the markets! In these discussions, one question that provokes vituperative discussion is whether the United States and other markets around the world entered a secular bear market in 2000. We have some observations about this, but before we look … Read more

Throughout our career, we have been warned about the “Ides of September/October”, i.e. the chance for a significant decline in those months. Yet, in many cases, the market has rallied in those months, or gone sideways. We have often wondered if there was an indicator that forecast the price movement … Read more

  Research Piece: August 2010 – by Fred Meissner, CMT We have had enough questions on gaps, in spite of our short research note (www.thefredreport.com/articles/researchpiece073010), that we felt this month’s research piece should be a discussion of gaps. We will discuss only the main three types of gaps (breakaway, continuation, and … Read more

Research Piece: July 2010 – by Fred Meissner, CMT We have decided to publish a quick research note on Gaps as the recent gap on the SPY has generated many questions, both on the July 30, 2010 call and later via email. In addition, we will do the research piece for … Read more

Research Piece: May 2010 – by Fred Meissner, CMT We continue to have questions about sentiment indicators, especially the low levels of bearish sentiment on Investor’s Intelligence that we have seen this year. In our Monthly Report of December 2009 we showed that a string of readings below 20% bears is not … Read more

Research Piece: April 2010 – by Bob Robbins   Using Relative Price Trend: The Basic Strategy of a Top-2% Ranked Money Manager By  Robert S. Robbins, CEO Robbins Capital Management Bob@RobbinsCapitalManagement.com www.RobbinsCapitalManagement.com   Relative Price Trend, or the price of a stock divided by the price of the S&P 500, is … Read more