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The Fred Report - Mid Week Update August 10, 2011

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author/source: Fred Meissner, CMT


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The FRED Report – Financial Research, Education & Data

Mid Week Update

 

Volume 3, Issue 64

August 10, 2011

 

Download PDF Version here


Update of Market View

The market rallied closing with an upward bias as we thought it might, given the extremes in the daily FPO we noted in our alert of yesterday. We have had extremes in breadth and new lows as well, suggesting that some climatic behavior has occurred. Obviously this has been a difficult market but it looks as if there is some light at the end of the tunnel. The test of the 1090 (night session) or SPX cash 1100 has fulfilled downside possibilities short-term that we suggested in the FREDAlert we sent out yesterday.
Our forecast for the next several days is a rally to the 1200 to 1235 area on SPX followed by some backing and filling, and then another move down within 5 -7 weeks to retest and slightly exceed the low we have made on a closing basis. Should that prove successful it would indicate a bottom that should remain in place for the rest of 2011. Ideally we would see a small down open and then turn up to exceed today’s highs. Should the market surprisingly decline below Tuesday’s lows there are likely lower prices in store. But, that would be a surprise.
Our call will be especially interesting this Thursday, as we will have some more time under our belts.  We want to see a few days of positive action before we feel we are completely out of the woods for the near term.

 

Other Points of Interest

GLD has also hit our price target for moving to an underweight (169), this was hit on the gold futures last week. Readers may want to take some of the GLD profits and put it into the PSAU – this mining and precious metals ETF is outperforming stocks so far, and should outperform into the end of the year. We show daily GLD and PSAU below.


 




DISCLAIMER: 
Fred Meissner is primarily responsible for the research in this report and certifies that: (1) all of the views expressed in this research accurately reflect his personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and (2) no part of his compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or view expressed him in this research.
 
This report is for your information only and is not an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, the securities or instruments named or described in this report.  Interested parties are advised to contact the entity with which they deal, or the entity that provided this report to them, if they desire further information.  The information in this report has been obtained or derived from sources believed by Fredco Holdings, Inc. to be reliable, but Fredco Holdings, Inc. does not represent that this information is accurate or complete.  Any opinions or estimates contained in this report represent the judgment of Fredco Holdings, Inc.  at this time and are subject to change without notice.  Fredco Holdings, Inc.  or its employees, officers, directors, principals, agents, affiliates or adviser may from time to time provide advice with respect to, acquire, short sell, hold or sell a position in, the securities or instruments named or described in this report.
 
Fredco Holdings, Inc. does not have investment banking relationships with any of the companies mentioned in this report and does not conduct investment banking business, in general.  Fredco Holdings, Inc.  and its employees do not receive compensation of any kind from any of the companies in this report.  Fredco Holdings, Inc. , its directors,  officers, principals, agents, advisers, affiliates and employees may maintain a financial position in the securities mentioned in this report, provided however that no buying or selling  activity will be taken with respect to a security referenced in a report by such parties within three days of such report’s publication.
 
The information contained herein was prepared by Fredco Holdings, Inc., which is solely responsible for the contents of this report.
 
Copyright 2010-2019 Fredco Holdings, Inc..  All rights reserved. This report is a publication of Fredco Holdings, Inc.  located at 4514 Chamblee-Dunwoody Rd, Suite 112, Dunwoody, GA 30338. 

 

 

 

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