USO has generated a short-term buy signal that should help XLE and PSCE. TLT is interesting as it tried to rally and had a reversal bar. It could end up weakening from here. The strong performance of dividend stocks, as measured by SPHD, is important.
Many have suggested the market is overbought. While daily and weekly FPO’s are stretched and that we could see a choppy, negative week sometime in the next few weeks, this still looks like a “good” overbought situation rather than the end of this advance. We believe a move by TYX above 32.50 will suggest the bull market in bonds is over.
We have no surprises so far this week in the U.S. equity markets. XLI and XLB have made new highs while IYW is lagging. The daily stochastic on GLD is very oversold while the weekly is still dropping down to recycle. There might be a bounce here but we are still trying to add GLD back around 117.
Major stock indexes, including MDY (which had been lagging) closed at or near all-time highs. This is in line with our forecasts, and suggests that our forecast for strength into yearend is intact. The market appears to be in the early stages of transitioning from domination by growth stocks into value. Consolidation is likely here but our forecast for a UUP move to the 26 area by yearend looks to be on track.
We continue to see increasing signs that the market has started the end of year rally we have been looking for since late summer. The latest is the performance of the Transportation Index ETFs. IWM and IJR have made new closing and intraday highs. We would be very cautious here on EEM.
We would add money here but also leave a bit out in case such a pullback materializes. One of the reasons we are positive is that equities are broadening out. We continue to be concerned about a rise in rates in the fourth quarter.
SPY made new closing weekly highs, suggesting that our forecast of a strong second half is on track. Trend following systems are positive, indicators are not horribly overbought, and this means the market can advance into yearend, as it is broadening out.
If this rally is to be really strong, then we should see improvement in the broader indexes. Probably the most interesting thing here is the possibility that a significant bottoming pattern in the dollar is under way.
The stock market is reacting erratically to the various storms, but last week saw some improvement to key technical indicators. Overall things continue to improve, and we see no reason to change our forecast for a strong end to 2017.
We have seen some signs that equities are preparing for our forecasted yearend advance. We are very interested in REITs as their accumulation models are stronger than TLT and the charts looks stronger also. This suggests that they would be a good addition to our “income cocktail” in the event that rates rise in the second part of 2017.
GLD has made a “Prussian Helmet” high and may have made an important peak for this year. The dollar may be making a complex bottom here and if so this could affect gold.
We expect a pullback to be relatively short-lived, followed by strength into yearend. If the market fails to broaden out, then we will look to switch into low volatility. Watch Brazil – if it fails so could EEM.
On the upside, SPY should test the 246 area and then failure is possible. Failure would be confirmed on a move below 243, which would then target 241 – 239.
There has been more deterioration in the breadth indicators. Our favorite leading indicator, New Highs/New lows has gone negative for the first time since March 10, 2017. The last few weeks of trading has shown more strength in the base metals, a sign that the economy could be getting ready to improve in the final part of the year.
We still think that GLD may consolidate here but ultimately can test 124 to 126. UUP has support at 24.20 to 24, and this could be retested. Watch this carefully as if this area is retested and holds advisors should consider selling some gold now.
243 is a key area on SPY and is holding. We expect an up week but ultimately more choppy behavior and a decline into month end. Stocks most dependent on the price of oil for revenue are improving more than the services.
One of the problems the U.S. and allies face in the Korean issue is that Seoul (the capital of South Korea) is just 35 miles from the DMZ (Demilitarized Zone) and the boarder with North Korea. This proximity and the presence a myriad of North Korean troops makes it difficult to drop a couple hundred Megatons worth of nuclear missiles on North Korea – the fallout would also hit the South, not to mention South Korean artillery and soldiers.
SPY is at the very top end of our projected range for 2017. While trend systems are positive and SPY should continue to advance through the end of 2017, one way to look at this is that the easy money has been made and risks are increasing. While we are not giving up on this market, we will have a little more caution into September unless we see a surge in breadth. Oil has tested 50, and should go through this level soon – if our analysis at the beginning of the year is correct oil should test 67/Bbl by yearend. The real question is whether my forecast of a stronger dollar in the second half is going to work? With the Monthly FPO on the dollar index at “-16” or so we believe the dollar should rally from this area.
We would expect that SPY will outperform QQQ into yearend, and believe we should see IWM, MDY, and IJR start to pick up the pace over the next month or so. Our GLD target for the year is 124 and that should be struck on this rally. While I am on vacation the next two weeks, we would expect UGA to hit 26 or higher, and USO to test 10.40. This should equal the following prices on our perpetual Crude Oil contract: above 47.40 targets 52.50.
