The Fred Report - Mid Week Update October 12, 2016We are now getting questions as to whether the market will break 212, and then rally sharply as stops are hit – and that is possible. However, a close through there opens the door to a test of 206 – 208 or lower, and we would be concerned.The Fred Report - Weekly October 10, 2016Stocks are in an interesting position here, as we have had two inside weeks, which is indicative of a trend-less market, on SPY. This could very well be at least a trading bottom in GLD, and this an advance above 122.20 and then 125.50 would confirm this low. Let’s see what happens, but we look for a daily stochastic above 20 soon.The Fred Report - Mid Week Update October 5, 2016Stocks are still trading in lackluster fashion but are holding the 212 area on SPY. There is real risk of this drop for TLT, and we would still be looking at some of the high dividend stocks and ETFs on any market dip.The Fred Report - Weekly October 3, 2016
We have been looking for the petroleum complex to make a seasonal low later in October and while this is possible, it is more likely that the low may have been made. One area that may benefit from higher oil prices is High Yield ETFs.
The Fred Report - Mid Week Update September 28, 2016We stand by our forecast of 223 and think this could be hit by the first week in October. Then the market may have some risk.The Fred Report - Weekly September 26, 2016Stocks had a decent week last week, holding the 212 support level on SPY, and look as if they are preparing to rally this week. For those who want to be cautious, we would raise some cash at 220, then 223 on this rally and hold it until after the election. We believe we are a month or so away from a great opportunity to buy commodities for 2017.The Fred Report - Mid Week Update September 21, 2016No change in our view on the stock indexes, which is that this is a short-term bottoming pattern on the indexes, and the leading index will still be the NASDAQ at least through the end of September.The Fred Report - Weekly September 19, 2016SPY and QQQ are in short-term buy mode, but QQQ looks stronger and should outperform into the beginning of October. We continue to watch Europe, EFA, and all of the developed market ETFs as they show weakness relative to the Emerging Market units. On a relative strength basis there is no reason to own the weaker countries, and on a chart basis the most attractive of these remains Switzerland.The Fred Report - Mid Week Update September 14, 2016
We would expect an up day on Wednesday, with more volatility, and a close below 212 would be a surprise. While we do not expect a catastrophic decline (for TLT) here, should this occur it could take equities along for the ride. An indication of this would be a close on TLT below 133.
We have been focusing on the 212 area on SPY as a benchmark for this market. For now, this is close only – we hope and expect this to be penetrated on the downside early Monday. The next support on the daily TLT chart is the gap between 135 and 133.50. If that breaks the next stop will be 131 – 129. We do not expect these areas to be challenged immediately – rather we expect some stability and a trending advance in prices.
The Fred Report - Weekly September 6, 2016We remain with a stop at 212 on SPY, and unless we see closes below that number the market should be fine. We remain with our target of 223 on SPY, to be hit sometime this year. Advisors who are not in gold now, and want positions, should buy it now. While there is a chance that it moves lower, our projections suggest another advance is more likely, and this one could move it above 130 (GLD).The Fred Report - Mid Week Update August 31, 2016What IS interesting is the amount of negative commentary from several firms. It is quite rare that we have seen such uniform negativity out of major firms, and in our view the technical condition of the market does not justify it. We would only be concerned if SPY closes below our benchmark price of 212.The Fred Report - Weekly August 29, 2016For a good while now the Regionals have been more popular than the big national banks, but if rates start to move up this could change. One of our forecasts for 2016 is that we should see a stronger dollar in the second half of 2016, and so far, this set up is holding for us.The Fred Report - Mid Week Update August 24, 2016We could add High Beta to existing positions, but not get rid of dividend and Low Volatility ETFs. We continue to see signs the market is broadening out and this should benefit SPHB. For those looking for an ETF to buy that is not correlated to stocks, we like GEX. The Fred Report - Weekly August 22, 2016
EMLC is also interesting as the weekly chart shows a rounding bottom with support in the 17.50 to 18 area and resistance in the 20 – 21 area. I would consider buying this on down days. DBB short-term support is important and is 12 – 12.50, and resistance is 14.50 to 15.50. Stochastics are overbought but the pattern is favorable, although suggesting consolidation. We would buy this on down days.
We remind all to watch the trading in TLT, below 137 would lead to a sharp decline, and this looks to occur soon. IBB is now at resistance and it is possible that the trading indication is largely over. Our target was around 300 and this is being tested.
Those that can use soft commodities should consider them rather than oil, for commodity exposure and diversification away from the metals, which remain our favorite area. BAC is trading right around resistance in the 15-area. The technical indicators are still positive overall, but the daily stochastic is overbought and in position to recycle, but in a solid short-term uptrend.
TLT continues to hold up but the weekly stochastic is now in sell mode and we should see more downside here. DBC has made what looks like a bottom in this area, but unless it can move above 15 there is a possibility that this will simply be a base.
TLT held support on a closing basis, while trading just a bit below it intraday. The support number is 137.50 and some closes below this will be a sign of concern. With long-term trend systems positive on gold we want to have a position.
The Fred Report - Mid Week Update August 3, 2016We have been expecting some market pullback as indicators are overbought. It is not bad, and should be contained by the 210 – 212 area on SPY. TLT had a better day than we expected in some respects, but the pattern is still precarious. Gold continues to look attractive and is challenging the 130-area. We think it will move above 131 or so on this advance.
