The Fred Report - Mid Week Update April 21, 2010The internals have been improving and our favorite sectors (Energy, Discretionary, Tech, and Industrials) are all acting better. Financials still look weak to us relative to the foregoing, as do Utilities. Oil stocks are rallying much more than oil itself.The Fred Report - Weekly April 19, 2010The weight of the technical evidence suggests that this is a reaction to an overbought condition within a continuing uptrend. We would position in Technology, Energy, Discretionary, and Industrial stocks and sectors over the next few weeks, in anticipation of this rally.The Fred Report - Mid Week Update April 14, 2010It is options expiration and usually the market has at least one down day during expiration week, even if there is a positive bias overall to the week. We are detecting a bit of relative weakness in financial stocks and note that there are layers of resistance between 16 and 18 on the XLF. The Fred Report - Weekly April 12, 2010A look at other key indexes shows that leadership remains in the small to midcap space, which is normal when emerging from a recession. Our longer – term view remains that rates are going up, and that appropriate strategies will mitigate this risk. We believe that a summer rally in commodities will lift energy markets.The Fred Report - Mid Week Update April 07, 2010The IWM had the first close above 70 today. While not everything acted great, this is still significant and suggests the chance of a pullback is becoming less likely. As mentioned, we believe a dominant feature of this summer’s market action will be a rally in the commodity complex, in particular, oil. We continue to feel that the big rise in rates is going to occur in the fall and not now.The Fred Report - Weekly April 05, 2010Our benchmark for the market is two closes above 70 on the IWM, and should that occur, we will become more bullish short–term. We continue to feel that rates are going up longer-term, and that eventually hedging strategies will be needed for clients that are heavily invested in bonds. Should the USO close above 42 we would expect a move to 48 or possibly more by the end of summer.
The Fred Report - Mid Week Update March 31, 2010We continue to look for the market to stage a small drop here before a summer rally that puts the indexes, including the SPX, at new recovery highs. It looks as if more dollar rally is imminent, and should be underway by this Thursday at the latest.The Fred Report - Weekly March 29, 2010We are looking for a correction of no more than 5 – 6% in the SPX, and then a move through the 1200 area resistance. Bonds had a bad week last week and the TLT and BWX especially look weak. We are looking for one more decline in the Petroleum complex into an area that will set up a summer rally in oil and commodity stocks. We note that China is looking attractive and should be bought in here. The EWZ (Brazil) has also tested support and we would try to add positions here.The Fred Report - Mid Week Update March 24, 2010
Our first observation is that should the lows of this week be exceeded, we could expect a correction in the market. Our second observation is that the SPX is getting very close to the 1200 area we have been discussing as resistance for some time and given the short-term overbought condition we are a bit cautious. We have removed MU at our sell price of 10.45, our short-term target.
The Fred Report - Weekly March 22, 2010The stock market closed out the week on a short-term sell signal which carries over into this week. We are now on short-term sell signals in the Oil Market. We still have targets in the 82 – 86 area for the Dollar Index, and should it do this it should put Gold and Oil down in the buy areas.The Fred Report - Mid Week Update March 17, 2010The last two milestones that for me to absolutely eliminate any sort of retest scenario are the SPX going through 1200 and the Dow Transports through 4600. We expect a test to the upside of SPX 1200 in the near future, possibly by the end of the week.The Fred Report - Weekly March 15, 2010We continue to see strength where we should see it, in the broader based, smaller stock indexes. Traders should use dips to accumulate stocks. The LQD has started to move out of the short-term flag formation which suggests further advance. We have been looking to add a ½ position back in Gold when the GLD hits 103, and that may be too optimistic, so we will raise that to 104.The Fred Report - Mid Week Update March 10, 2010We remain intermediate–term bullish for many reasons, strong market breadth being paramount. The Dow Transports have made new recovery closing highs vs. the March 2009 bottom.The Fred Report - Weekly March 8, 2010The IWM, MDY, and IJR have basically moved above the 2008 lows that have held the stock market back. We continue to see weakness in the TLT and treasuries. Gold is trading well, but up at short-term resistance.The Fred Report - Mid Week Update March 3, 2010The Mid Cap and Small Cap indexes have made new recovery highs. Should we see continued strength this week, especially in the leadership indexes we will start to add to our trading lists, and otherwise invest as if a new upleg is beginning. The Fred Report - Weekly March 1, 2010We actually have the indicator set up for a rally starting this week, or next week at the latest. Advisors should be positioning clients for an intermediate advance in this area, and use dips should we get them to increase exposure. On our trading list, CVX continues to look like a bottoming pattern and we are actively looking to add more oil stocks on this decline. It now looks as if, this week, the Euro should have a sharp rally against the Yen. Should the JOF trade 8.50 it would be on a short-term breakout that could test 10 or 11.The Fred Report - Mid Week Update February 24, 2010
We are looking for one more decline to bring the daily Stochastics and other indicators down into the buy zone, which should also further correct the weekly indicators, and set up a solid intermediate buy point. The dollar is testing resistance at the 80 to 81 area and we now have higher expectations that it will break through to challenge the 82 – 86 area, and soon.
The Fred Report - Weekly February 22, 2010We note continued out performance by Mid and Small Cap stocks as a harbinger of economic strength and recommend positions in those areas for all with an intermediate outlook. The market can rise in a rising rate environment but it can be choppier. We are long-term commodity bulls, and have no qualms about being invested in these areas.The Fred Report - Mid Week Update February 17, 2010We would be very cautious on a big up open tomorrow and if we were trading we would be a seller should that up open occur. We will likely add another ½ for the GLD on a decline into March/April.The Fred Report - Weekly February 16, 2010Ideally, February should close in the 1050 to 1030 (possibly as low as 1020) area, which would set us up for a fairly strong March. We continue to like the gold market, and are waiting for the weekly stochastics to fall a little more before we add back our ½ position. There are indications that there will be a reversal in the currencies – with the Euro starting an advance and the Yen falling off a bit.
