The Fred Report - Mid Week Update February 10, 2010Some of my very long-term indicators suggest a down February would be bullish. We see some positives – our accumulation models on the Transports continue to improve and look better than those on the SPY.The Fred Report - Weekly February 8, 2010What we would look for now is a rally attempt that fails, followed by another decline to slightly lower lows in a week or two. We will add the following stocks to our list IF THEY OPEN DOWN, on Monday’s open: Q, INTC, and JNJ. The Natural Gas market (UNG) looks to be setting up for a rally, and we may look to add a Gas stock prior to Spring, should we see an opportunity. The Fred Report - Mid Week Update February 3, 2010So far, this drop has been typical of what you see when there are low % bears, as we have remarked upon. I would be adding to positions here, and more on a decline should we see it mid-February.The Fred Report - Weekly February 1, 2010While we should see a rally from these levels, it is quite possible that we come down and make lower lows into late February/early March. We have not modified our views on rates – they look higher, and we would continue to shorten duration, buy on down days, and not chase bonds. Gold continues to look attractive. The dollar is rallying but is a tad weaker than expected. The Fred Report - Mid Week Update January 27, 2010While we would like to see a down January (and Friday is the last trading day in January), it is possible we see a short-term rally here. We would like to see the IWM fully test the 60 to 58 area. Tuesday’s action suggests a rally in the US Dollar Index should start a new leg up, and right away.The Fred Report - Weekly January 19, 2010
We remain intermediate-term positive on stocks, believing that this is a short-term correction and no more. For fixed income, We continue to advocate laddering of maturities, and shortening of duration. While Oil could certainly fall farther, I would be extremely surprised if 69, on the March contract, is significantly breeched to the downside, but a move to 72 certainly is possible.
The Fred Report - Mid Week Update January 20, 2010We expect stocks to ultimately break through, but would like to see a pullback here first to recharge the short-term indicators. The Dollar looks higher, and commodities may trend lower. The New High/New Low Indicator has hit new highs for the move off of the March lows, and has hit the highest level seen since the week of February 6, 2004.The Fred Report - Weekly January 19, 2010Overall – we remain bullish on US equities intermediate-term, while acknowledging that the chances for a short-term correction right now are as high as they have been at any time since this summer. While we think that the TLT might make it to 93, this move is likely not worth trading, unless your primary market is bonds. Oil stock traders may want to look at hedging strategies here, such as covered calls, with the idea that oil could rest here, then have a nice summer driving rally. Overall, the action suggests that the buck remains in a long-term downtrend, but we still look for a test of the 82 – 86 area within that context. The Fred Report - Mid Week Update January 13, 2010
It is options expiration and how the week concludes is Key! While we are long-term fixed income bears, fixed income in general could have a good move up into the end of February. The TLT could test the 93.00 area or higher. The dollar has had a short-term pullback and looks to resume the advance. We advocate a small position in gold at all times, and for those who have removed their whole gold position look to add some back as we pull back.
The Fred Report - Weekly January 11, 2010We are seeing some signs that leadership is changing. The TLT has chopped all over the place, but the bottom line is it remains on a short-term buy signal. We would be cautious here in energy and energy stocks, realizing consolidation and/or a pullback could start at any time. For those who do want to add exposure in the commodities area we would consider adding a position in the PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking (DBC). The rally in the dollar does not seem to be over.The Fred Report - Mid Week Update January 6, 2009Oil and Energy stocks are doing a bit better than we thought they might. The other area doing well is Financials – the XLF has resolved the short-term wedge to the upside. The Fred Report - Weekly January 4, 2010US stocks area short-term overbought, but the rally has broadened out, and we do not see the signs normally present at an intermediate top. We are long-term bond bears, believing rates will move higher in the next few years, but this looks like an opportunity to trade some bonds to the upside should advisors wish to do so. USO and UNG are overbought short-term and could decline over the next few weeks. The Fred Report - Mid Week Update December 30, 2009"Big move indicator” signal remains in effect for one more week. I am a bit surprised that the Mid Cap Value (IJJ) looks just a tad better than Mid Cap Growth (IJK). The Fred Report - Weekly December 28, 2009The rally is broadening out in some respects, and the start of 2010 could be better than we have been forecasting. Rates do look like they are going up. We continue to think that the long-term trend of commodities is up, and the dollar down.The Fred Report - Mid Week Update December 23, 2009There still seems to be rotation into the small and madcap stock area. This could be next year’s “surprise”. Sector action continues to suggest economic recovery. I would feel much more sanguine about calling for a bottom in gold if the Dollar was at 80 to 84 rather than at 78 to 79. The Fred Report - Weekly December 21, 2009The stock market still has positive seasonality, and we see improvement “under the surface”. The Fixed income markets still look as if rates are making a long-term bottom, but could be set for a countertrend move. Right now, it still looks to us as if the dollar is up over the next 2 to 4 months, with an objective of 84 to 90 on the DXY before the downtrend resumes. The Fred Report - Mid Week Update December 16, 2009We are especially heartened by the action in the Dow Jones Transportation index, which has broken out and continues to improve. Our yearend rally scenario remains intact for now. S&P 600 Small Cap Index ($SML) has broken out above the 320.The Fred Report - Weekly December 14, 2009Some of the signs of weakness may in fact be signs of rotation. We continue to think Tech will outperform into the end of the year, and possibly into next year. International remains positive and we continue to like Asia and that growth story looks better than Europe. The Fred Report - Mid Week Update December 9, 2009We may see the market rally on dollar weakness and see this rally broaden out into smaller more aggressive stocks as the economy improves. The dollar’s performance is not as linked to stocks as the public believes right now.The Fred Report - Weekly December 07, 2009Dow Transports finally made new recovery highs. We caution bond investors, for now, to be circumspect – buy bonds only on down days. The EWJ and JOF look to have bottomed and we would buy on pullbacks.
