The Fred Report - Weekly March 29, 2010We are looking for a correction of no more than 5 – 6% in the SPX, and then a move through the 1200 area resistance. Bonds had a bad week last week and the TLT and BWX especially look weak. We are looking for one more decline in the Petroleum complex into an area that will set up a summer rally in oil and commodity stocks. We note that China is looking attractive and should be bought in here. The EWZ (Brazil) has also tested support and we would try to add positions here.The Fred Report - Mid Week Update March 24, 2010
Our first observation is that should the lows of this week be exceeded, we could expect a correction in the market. Our second observation is that the SPX is getting very close to the 1200 area we have been discussing as resistance for some time and given the short-term overbought condition we are a bit cautious. We have removed MU at our sell price of 10.45, our short-term target.
The Fred Report - Weekly March 22, 2010The stock market closed out the week on a short-term sell signal which carries over into this week. We are now on short-term sell signals in the Oil Market. We still have targets in the 82 – 86 area for the Dollar Index, and should it do this it should put Gold and Oil down in the buy areas.The Fred Report - Mid Week Update March 17, 2010The last two milestones that for me to absolutely eliminate any sort of retest scenario are the SPX going through 1200 and the Dow Transports through 4600. We expect a test to the upside of SPX 1200 in the near future, possibly by the end of the week.The Fred Report - Weekly March 15, 2010We continue to see strength where we should see it, in the broader based, smaller stock indexes. Traders should use dips to accumulate stocks. The LQD has started to move out of the short-term flag formation which suggests further advance. We have been looking to add a ½ position back in Gold when the GLD hits 103, and that may be too optimistic, so we will raise that to 104.The Fred Report - Mid Week Update March 10, 2010We remain intermediate–term bullish for many reasons, strong market breadth being paramount. The Dow Transports have made new recovery closing highs vs. the March 2009 bottom.The Fred Report - Weekly March 8, 2010The IWM, MDY, and IJR have basically moved above the 2008 lows that have held the stock market back. We continue to see weakness in the TLT and treasuries. Gold is trading well, but up at short-term resistance.The Fred Report - Mid Week Update March 3, 2010The Mid Cap and Small Cap indexes have made new recovery highs. Should we see continued strength this week, especially in the leadership indexes we will start to add to our trading lists, and otherwise invest as if a new upleg is beginning. The Fred Report - Weekly March 1, 2010We actually have the indicator set up for a rally starting this week, or next week at the latest. Advisors should be positioning clients for an intermediate advance in this area, and use dips should we get them to increase exposure. On our trading list, CVX continues to look like a bottoming pattern and we are actively looking to add more oil stocks on this decline. It now looks as if, this week, the Euro should have a sharp rally against the Yen. Should the JOF trade 8.50 it would be on a short-term breakout that could test 10 or 11.The Fred Report - Mid Week Update February 24, 2010
We are looking for one more decline to bring the daily Stochastics and other indicators down into the buy zone, which should also further correct the weekly indicators, and set up a solid intermediate buy point. The dollar is testing resistance at the 80 to 81 area and we now have higher expectations that it will break through to challenge the 82 – 86 area, and soon.
The Fred Report - Weekly February 22, 2010We note continued out performance by Mid and Small Cap stocks as a harbinger of economic strength and recommend positions in those areas for all with an intermediate outlook. The market can rise in a rising rate environment but it can be choppier. We are long-term commodity bulls, and have no qualms about being invested in these areas.The Fred Report - Mid Week Update February 17, 2010We would be very cautious on a big up open tomorrow and if we were trading we would be a seller should that up open occur. We will likely add another ½ for the GLD on a decline into March/April.The Fred Report - Weekly February 16, 2010Ideally, February should close in the 1050 to 1030 (possibly as low as 1020) area, which would set us up for a fairly strong March. We continue to like the gold market, and are waiting for the weekly stochastics to fall a little more before we add back our ½ position. There are indications that there will be a reversal in the currencies – with the Euro starting an advance and the Yen falling off a bit.The Fred Report - Mid Week Update February 10, 2010Some of my very long-term indicators suggest a down February would be bullish. We see some positives – our accumulation models on the Transports continue to improve and look better than those on the SPY.The Fred Report - Weekly February 8, 2010What we would look for now is a rally attempt that fails, followed by another decline to slightly lower lows in a week or two. We will add the following stocks to our list IF THEY OPEN DOWN, on Monday’s open: Q, INTC, and JNJ. The Natural Gas market (UNG) looks to be setting up for a rally, and we may look to add a Gas stock prior to Spring, should we see an opportunity. The Fred Report - Mid Week Update February 3, 2010So far, this drop has been typical of what you see when there are low % bears, as we have remarked upon. I would be adding to positions here, and more on a decline should we see it mid-February.The Fred Report - Weekly February 1, 2010While we should see a rally from these levels, it is quite possible that we come down and make lower lows into late February/early March. We have not modified our views on rates – they look higher, and we would continue to shorten duration, buy on down days, and not chase bonds. Gold continues to look attractive. The dollar is rallying but is a tad weaker than expected. The Fred Report - Mid Week Update January 27, 2010While we would like to see a down January (and Friday is the last trading day in January), it is possible we see a short-term rally here. We would like to see the IWM fully test the 60 to 58 area. Tuesday’s action suggests a rally in the US Dollar Index should start a new leg up, and right away.The Fred Report - Weekly January 19, 2010
We remain intermediate-term positive on stocks, believing that this is a short-term correction and no more. For fixed income, We continue to advocate laddering of maturities, and shortening of duration. While Oil could certainly fall farther, I would be extremely surprised if 69, on the March contract, is significantly breeched to the downside, but a move to 72 certainly is possible.
The Fred Report - Mid Week Update January 20, 2010We expect stocks to ultimately break through, but would like to see a pullback here first to recharge the short-term indicators. The Dollar looks higher, and commodities may trend lower. The New High/New Low Indicator has hit new highs for the move off of the March lows, and has hit the highest level seen since the week of February 6, 2004.
