Weekly Report

The Fred Report – Weekly February 2, 2026

Right now, we are going with two assumptions: (1) that we are going to be right about a pullback into the April to June time frame, and (2) that Transports and Small Cap will outperform on a decline. We all know Tech is the largest sector in the S&P 500, and it is over owned by retail investors. This could make it more vulnerable.

The Fred Report – Mid Week Update January 28, 2026

We have advocated selling off some unwanted positions and taking some profits, preparing for an expected pullback into the April through June timeframe. We figured metals could advance into the end of the month and expect GLD and SLV to have a difficult time in February.

The Fred Report – Weekly January 26, 2026

SPY should hold 675 and QQQ 616. Below those numbers would be an indication that some corrective behavior has started. Fred’s Price Oscillators for Crude Oil and Gasoline are down without a buy pattern. This suggests a pullback now and a summer rally, a normal seasonal pattern.

The Fred Report – Weekly January 20, 2026

While the leading stocks in IYW and XLK are still strong, we are seeing more weakness in secondary tech. We should be moving into other areas, such as XLI, as an example. Having some representation of other indexes in portfolios is also important – and we have discussed switching into RSP as opposed to SPY.

The Fred Report – Weekly January 12, 2026

We note that RSP and Small Cap ETFs continue to look stronger than IYW (Technology), which we view as a plus suggesting leadership change.  We still maintain our forecast for an intermediate peak near the end of January with a solid tradable low in May.

The Fred Report – Mid Week Update January 7, 2026

We have moved above 692 today, faster than we thought! Ideally, we will close above 692 in the next few days/week to absolutely confirm our view.  We have been asked what bond ETF to buy for a trade into the summer. Our favorite here is MUB.  QTUM is breaking out of a consolidation and as long as it holds 107 it is strong enough to buy.

The Fred Report – Weekly January 5, 2026

Short-term breadth indicators reinforce this: the next few weeks look favorable for gains, likely strongest in the indexes and sectors that have lagged thus far.  Indicators suggest that tech may perform less well than other sectors in the first part of the year, but if they get a significant enough pullback, they should show strength in the second part of 2026.  For now, we look for slightly lower rates in 2026.