Weekly Report

Please add some small cap positions with a six-month time horizon. We would start to add MUB and LQD into fixed income models or add to them if you have them already.

April had the worst put call readings in many, many years and this should have a greater effect on prices than improving intermediate sentiment. IJR is making new highs while MDY is stalling. The bottom line for us is that we would still use strength to sell oil price sensitive stocks, slowly, to move to an underweight in this area.

Transportations did well despite the rise in oil, yet another sign of economic strength. TLT probed the downside but traded up at the end of the day, a plus. We would be selling oil stocks (except oil services) slowly into strength, trying to get to an underweight by the end of June/July.

Traders should use strength at the end of the week to take some profits. We still are forecasting a drop in rates in the second part of 2026.

More advance on oil would suggest a test of the recent high – be careful of this. We would move some money from XLE to OIH, as that should have better potential long-term.

We would use pullbacks in here to add to position, realizing that a secondary low or retest is possible, but that not all stocks will pull back. On SPY, a close below 690 would be a concern, and on QQQ 620.

This rally might be starting early – we are not sure this is the case, however, and trader should use this rally to raise cash into Friday. We have been focusing on Small Cap Value, and it looks to be time to add growth back as well. We think that Small Cap will be a leader in the second part of 2026.

When you take a “10,000” foot view of things it is amazing that we are not down more. We would buy OIH and CRAK on dips if oil prices decline and want to have these in portfolios as part of an energy allocation.

This might turn into a short-term rally and then sell on the news event. TLT still looks to rally and our targets in the 92-area remain.

We still are looking for another decline into the end of April. On last Thursday’s Conference Call we discussed the possibility that Small Cap stocks perform well in the second half of 2026, perhaps even becoming new leadership.