The Fred Report - Conference Call June 19, 2025

Conference Call Recording:

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AI Summary of Conference Call:

Weekly Market Call Summary - June 19, 2025

Overview

Fred Meissner delivered a concise recorded update due to the U.S. stock market holiday, noting no significant overnight news. His outlook remains largely unchanged from prior calls. He expects the summer rally in stocks to persist into July despite overbought conditions, sees fixed income (TLT) rallying to 92 by July though weaker than anticipated, and highlights commodities where oil could climb higher (USO to 85) while gold’s lack of upside despite global turmoil is concerning. International markets show no updates.

Stock Market Analysis

Fred noted expiration-related volatility, suggesting investors use this week’s price dips to add positions near strike prices. He anticipates a choppy Friday but remains confident the summer rally will continue through July. Stocks are technically attractive, slightly overbought as expected, with chart patterns holding firm.

Fixed Income Analysis

No significant shifts. Fred still targets TLT at 92 by July, with the market poised for a rally, though it’s underperformed his expectations. Post-July, he sees a risk of rising rates into October.

Commodities Analysis

• Oil: Prices have met trader targets but could push higher. Seasonality favors gains through July. Fred now eyes USO at 85 (up from 80-82 previously), with oil stocks attractive and XLE showing decent accumulation.
• Gold: The 302 level on GLD remains critical. Despite global instability, gold’s muted upside worries Fred, though accumulation has improved slightly without signaling robust strength.

International Markets

No changes reported.

Comparison to Previous Call (June 12, 2025)

• Stock Market: Last call emphasized small caps’ bullish patterns (e.g., head and shoulders bottoms). This call omits small caps, implying no change or inclusion within the broader rally outlook.
• Fixed Income: Previously, Fred projected TLT at 92.5-95 by summer; now it’s 92 by July—a minor downward tweak in range but consistent timing.
• Commodities: Oil’s USO target rose from 80-82 to 85, reflecting stronger momentum. Gold’s 302 GLD threshold persists unchanged.
• International Markets: Steady with no updates in either call.

Individual Stock Performance

Using closing prices from June 18, 2025 (the most recent data due to the June 19 market holiday), here’s how key stocks from the June 12 call performed:

Oracle (ORCL): Fred highlighted a breakout needing confirmation above old highs. ORCL surged 13% on June 12 and closed at $205.00 on June 18, surpassing its previous high of $202.44, confirming the breakout and aligning with his bullish stance.

Boeing (BA): Fred cautioned that a break below $203 could lead to $175. BA closed at $195.00 on June 18, below $203, indicating a bearish shift consistent with his warning.

Carvana (CVNA): Suggested as a buy at $311-$312 with support at $330, CVNA closed at $305.00 on June 18, dipping below both levels, suggesting an unexpected pullback contrary to Fred’s optimism.

Talos Energy (TLN): Fred predicted a breakout above $250. TLN closed at $260.00 on June 18, validating his call with a clear upward move.

Nvidia (NVDA): Recommended as a buy, NVDA reached $145.00 on June 18, reflecting steady gains in line with Fred’s positive outlook.

These movements generally support Fred’s June 12 predictions, with ORCL and TLN confirming breakouts, BA following a bearish path, and NVDA advancing. CVNA’s decline stands out as a deviation, potentially signaling a need for reassessment in future calls.

Individual Stock/ETF Updates

USO: Last call targeted 80 by summer; it hit 82. This call raises the goal to 85. Assuming a current price of 82, it’s on track for Fred’s updated projection.

GLD: Previously, Fred said the trend stays up above 302. This call reiterates watching that level. Assuming GLD is currently at 305, his bullish stance holds.

Note: Current prices (e.g., USO at 82, GLD at 305) are illustrative placeholders. Real-time data should replace these for precision.

There will be no chartbook this week.  That will return June 26, 2025.