The FRED Report – Financial Research, Education & Data
Mid Week Update
Volume 16, Issue 23
March 27, 2024
Download PDF Version here
PLEASE NOTE: Recorded call tomorrow …. chartbook comments provided by Geoff Garbacz as Fred has a conflict.
Update of Market View
We have had two down days in stocks this week so far. SPY (SPDR® S&P 500 Trust) is testing some support in the 518 area. The daily stochastic has moved back into sell territory, and the market should move a bit lower. We expect a test of the 515 area, and below that 507 then 500 to 480. Doing that over the next month or so should cause the daily stochastic to recycle (remember that recycles can occur based on either time, price, or a combination of the two). At the same time QQQ (Invesco® QQQ NASDAQ 100 ETF) has moved up, and the daily stochastic has moved up across the trading range. It is now a sell recycle as well. There should be some more corrective action short-term, but the intermediate structure is still quite strong. We show charts, below.
We comment briefly on GLD. The reason is that there are some structured notes that expire the first week of April. In addition, the April contract goes to spot as of April 1st and it has the most open interest of any of the 2024 contracts. This means potential selling in gold could begin soon.
Other Points of Interest
TLT (iShare® 20+ Year Treasury Bond) is a daily recycle and should bounce here. It is in an interesting position, as it has made a lower high before the last sell recycle, but now has a higher low on this buy recycle. We shall see if this daily recycle can lead to a higher high.
