The Fred Report - Monthly July 2016Our forecast is a stronger market in the second half, but this may fail here and then rally in the fourth quarter. Still, it is time to be more aggressive in large caps. We have seen a rally in some commodities, and this is a bright spot in the current environment. GLD continues to rally, and the monthly moving averages have gone positive for the first time since 2013. The Fred Report - Monthly June 2016We are more vulnerable now than any time since the beginning of 2016, and we are still cautious. How June goes will give us an idea of how 2016 ends. Our forecast is a stronger market in the second half, but this may fail here and then rally in the fourth quarter.The Fred Report - Monthly May 2016We have been in short-term rally mode, but several objectives on the upside have been hit. How May goes will give us an idea of how 2016 ends. We have seen a rally in some commodities, and this is a bright spot in the current environment.The Fred Report - Monthly April 2016The general tone of the market has improved, but non-conformations still exist. Until the structure corrects the market is vulnerable, although some downside objectives have been met.The Fred Report - Monthly March 2016The bear market structure at the end of 2015 has improved but it has not been repaired. Now, we are in short-term rally mode, but several objectives on the upside have been hit. Failure to penetrate 200 on SPY from here would suggest more decline is possible and a test of the recent low is possible from this area. Until the structure corrects the market is vulnerable, although some downside objectives have been met.The Fred Report - Monthly February 2016The bear market structure at the end of 2015 has increased, rather than rallying in January as we thought it might. Now, we are in short-term rally mode, with several objectives on the upside. Failure to penetrate 200 on SPY from here would suggest more decline is possible and a test of the 175 area on SPY. Until the structure corrects the market is vulnerable, even if downside objectives are hit.The Fred Report - Monthly January 2016Our forecast that window dressing would dominate the last month of 2015, was correct, and traders who used our “10% solution” have sold these trading stocks, and should be looking to reposition into smaller names if a rally starts in January. This rally should cause SPY to close the month above 211. Please see our yearly forecast for yearend targets and more discussion. The Fred Report - Monthly December 2015Stocks rallied from the buy signal at roughly 190 on the stochastic, but now stochastics are overbought. SPY should hold 204 – 205 and certainly not move below 202 before yearend, and as long as this occurs our yearend target of 223 remains in play.The Fred Report - Monthly November 2015SPY gave short-term rally indications, and this has occurred. There is enough technical evidence to suggest further upside after consolidation, and we would add the last third of cash raised on a breakout in SPY. While our target of 223 on SPY (per our yearly forecast) remains in play, there is less time to reach it than we figured when we made the forecast.The Fred Report - Monthly October 2015SPY given short-term rally indications, but internals suggest a retest is possible after oversold conditions are relieved. There is enough technical evidence to suggest further downside that clients who are more concerned with downside risk than capturing all upside should remain cautious at this juncture. While our target of 223 on SPY (per our yearly forecast) remains in play, we must see the quality of a short-term rally, should it occur, and also see improvement in the internal indicators.The Fred Report - Monthly September 2015SPY has corrected as forecast by weak market internals over several months. The real question is whether this decline was IT, or whether a retest and further downside should occur. There is enough technical evidence to suggest further downside that clients who are more concerned with downside risk than capturing all upside should remain cautious at this juncture. While our target of 223 (per our yearly forecast) remains in play, we may have revisions after the next quarterly indicator readings. The Fred Report - Monthly August 2015SPY had the forecast down quarter in Q2, and is oversold enough to rally this quarter. MDY and IJR also declined and weekly stochastics are now in buy mode suggesting an imminent rally. Most indexes had negative second quarters, fulfilling our forecast. This was not enough to reset the indicators, but it may be enough to spark a short-term rally, and our target of 223 (per our yearly forecast) remains in play. The Fred Report - Monthly July 2015SPY had the forecast down quarter, and is oversold enough to rally. MDY also declined and looks quite strong relative to other indexes. The Dow Industrials had two negative quarters, which fulfills our forecast of a negative quarter in the first half. This was not enough to reset the indicators, but it may be enough to spark a short-term rally, and our target of 223 (per our yearly forecast) remains in play. The Fred Report - Monthly June 2015SPY is slowly advancing but the underpinnings are weakening. MDY also made new highs and looks quite strong relative to the small cap indexes. The Dow Industrials had a negative quarter, which fulfills our forecast of a negative quarter in the first half and SPY was only marginally positive on the quarter. This was not enough to reset the indicators, however. We have higher targets for 2015 especially if stocks can correct over the summer. We continue to expect the market to get intermediate oversold before these higher targets are in play.The Fred Report - Monthly May 2015SPY is now a trading range. The Dow Industrials had a negative quarter, which fulfills our forecast of a negative quarter in the first half but SPY was only marginally positive on the quarter and had a negative month. We have higher targets for 2015 especially if stocks can correct in the first half of the year. We continue to expect the market to get intermediate oversold before these higher targets are in play.The Fred Report - Monthly April 2015SPY is now a trading range. The Dow Industrials had a negative quarter, which fulfills our forecast of a negative quarter in the first half but SPY was only marginally positive on the quarter and had a negative month. We have higher targets for 2015 especially if stocks can correct in the first half of the year. We continue to expect the market to get intermediate oversold before these higher targets are in play.The Fred Report - Monthly March 2015SPY is having the short-term rally forecast in last month’s Monthly Review. While indicators suggest this short-term rally is not over, it does not look like a kick-off move to the upside is imminent. We have higher targets for 2015 especially if stocks can correct in the first half of the year. We expect at least one down quarter and believe it should be Q2 but a decent finish to 2015 is certainly possible, especially if we can get intermediate oversold.The Fred Report - Monthly February 2015SPY was down in December and January. While indicators suggest a short-term rally this does not look like a kick-off move to the upside. We have higher targets for 2015 especially if stocks can correct in the first half of the year. We expect at least one down quarter and believe it should be Q2 but a decent finish to 2015 is certainly possible, especially if we can get intermediate oversold.The Fred Report - Monthly January 2015SPY had an interesting December, and indicators suggest upside but more volatility going forward. We got the upside test of the 209 level on SPY and have higher targets for 2015 especially if stocks can correct in the first half of the year. The first part of January might be down as indicators are overbought, but a decent finish to 2015 is certainly possible.The Fred Report - Monthly December 2014SPY had a strong November, and indicators suggest upside but more volatility going forward. We still expect an upside test of the 209 level on SPY as long as support at the 190 area on SPY holds. The first part of December might be down as indicators are somewhat overbought, but a decent finish to 2014 is certainly possible.
