Stocks have come close enough to our 312 target on SPY that a pullback could start at anytime, but it is not “guaranteed." Short-term support is 308 to 307, and less short-term projections come in around 300. If UUP can trade below 26, that would suggest this advance is ending.
The market is overbought and could see a pullback after our target of 312 on SPY is hit. We do expect a yearend rally after a pullback or consolidation.
The markets have continued to rally and the next short-term target on SPY comes in around 312. We would continue to add attractive stocks. We also observe that IJR traded over 82 (our key number) on Tuesday.
The market is trading well, and we are bullish, but officially our forecasting system remains neutral. We believe that the smaller indexes are poised to pick up into yearend. The real opportunity may be in KBWY. We ran our monthly FPO’s on West Texas Crude Oil and the CRB. Both of these are in buy patterns, suggesting an advance should occur, and may be suggesting that the economy could expand in an inflationary way in 2020.
SPY has made all-time highs as we have forecast. Obviously, this means trading indicators are overbought. In other words, new highs and overbought readings can also spark consolidation and a potential pullback. A close above 82 in IJR, and above 200 on IYT would signal the start of a yearend rally. UUP is a multiyear breakout and unless below 26 this is a strong chart suggesting higher prices.
The market continued to rally last week, and QQQ hit all-time highs. Market internals continue to improve, as New Highs/New Lows continued to gain strength and breadth is positive and improving, both on the NYSE and NASDAQ.
Stocks rallied over $300 on SPY for a bit but closed down at $298.99. The daily stochastic is elevated but not in sell mode. Unless TLT can move above 140 very soon we still look for a test of 136 at least.
We saw a slight increase in both the amount of new highs, and the difference between new highs and new lows, as there were twice as many net advancing issues on the New York on a weekly basis. Should we speculate in Britain at this time? Technical indicators suggest that the answer is yes for aggressive advisors.
The current market still looks like more rally is possible, although the chart pattern suggests the Friday gap will fill. While rates may not rise at the same rate as last week, they should continue to advance after some consolidation. We continue to have targets of 72 on WTI for this year.
SPY has held support and should rally back to the top end of the trading range, and possibly break out to new highs. TLT has rallied up to the top end of the range we have looked for and should start to pull back this week.
We continue to see consolidation that is bringing a buy recycle in the daily stochastics. DBA is moving down into the timeframe we are looking for as a price low, so for traders we should start to look for intermediate buy indications.
Bonds had a daily buy recycle and are up, while SPY had a daily sell recycle and is down. A higher low on a buy recycle in SPY could set up new highs for that index.
We are watching the trading in IJR this week, which could break above 82 this week. If that happens the market could do well in September and October, rather than the other way around, as most people think.
IWM is a buy recycle on the weekly, and IJR is stronger showing relative strength. These markets are suggesting that there is no likelihood of recession.
