The Fred Report - Weekly January 24, 2011
Some volatility has returned to the stock market, but stocks closed square in the middle of our 130 – 126 range on the SPY, remaining in “no man’s land”. Our accumulation model is still etching out a pattern of higher lows vs. lower lows in price, which suggests an imminent bond rally. Oil is approaching the end of its seasonally favorable period and there are some signs a decline could be starting.
The Fred Report - Mid Week Update January 20, 2011
Until we close through EITHER 130 or 126 on the SPY, there is no real price directed technical signal. The IYT closed below the breakout close of January 3, 2011 and are now negative on the year.
The Fred Report - Weekly January 18, 2011
The stock market has rallied towards our 130 objective on SPY, and internals are weakening. We continue to have favorable indications on the TLT (Barclays 20 Year Treasury Bond iShare) and look for a short-term rally. We remain firmly in the inflation camp, and are sticking with our 17-month objective of 152 on GLD.
The Fred Report - Mid Week Update January 12, 2011
The market continues to try and rally but make very little progress. Below SPY 125 would accentuate the risk, in our opinion. Bonds continue to give buy signals, and while this is a “bottom picking” area, and not a trend following sort of signal, accumulation models suggest nice upside.
The Fred Report - Weekly January 10, 2011
We continue to encourage traders to use tighter than average stops. The bond market continues to give small buy signals, suggesting that a rally is imminent. The dollar has made a significant move up and a move through 81.50 would target 83 to 84.
The Fred Report - Mid Week Update January 5, 2011
Until the SPY moves through 130 and the IYT can improve – we will remain cautious. Sentiment continues to deteriorate. Bonds continue to look like a short-term bottom.
The Fred Report - Weekly January 3, 2011
The stock market starts off the year in a precarious position, but this could change with a breadth and volume surge that moves the SPY above the 130 target area we have had since the end of last November. We would accumulate bonds in this area, with emphasis on some of these international issues. We expect energy stocks, as well as the commodity, to do reasonably well into mid to late January.
The Fred Report - Mid Week Update December 29, 2010
The stock market continues to rally slowly and we have no change in our outlook for the rest of the week. Note how the Transports are definitely lagging the Industrials suggesting the markets have a bit of concern about the economy going into next year. We look for some dollar strength early next year.
The Fred Report - Weekly December 27, 2010
We continue to maintain our cautious stance going into the new year. Energy continues the seasonal rally and this sector should remain stronger even during a correction after the first of the year. Bonds look to be setting up for a bit of an oversold rally. The Euro markets seem to be saying that the idea of “two Europe’s”, at least for investors, is gaining credence.
The Fred Report - Mid Week Update December 22, 2010
We continue to advocate a defensive posture for the first part of 2011, while enjoying this year-end rally. It looks to us as if the DXY (US Dollar Index) is poised to rally into 2011.
The Fred Report - Weekly December 20, 2010
The yearend rally continues, but on deteriorating internal technical indicators. For those who have been waiting for an opportunity to add bonds to client portfolios, we can add some bonds here. Commodity markets are trading well going into yearend and we should see continued upside with leadership in the petroleum complex.
The Fred Report - Mid Week Update December 15, 2010
We continue to take some defensive measures. We could see commodities push up into the end of the year even if stocks falter. Sentiment is worsening, and is one of the technical underpinnings of the market where we have concern.
The Fred Report - Weekly December 13, 2010
Last week was choppy enough that this week could be up strong. We continue to see 2011 as a relatively quiet year for bonds. For this week, we would look for a sharp up move in the price of energy commodities and energy stocks as well.
The Fred Report - Mid Week Update December 8, 2010
We remain bullish through the end of the year and see fairly strong potential as many portfolio managers are lagging the market and have to buy to show performance. There is a fair amount of resistance here – and some choppy trading would set up a strong expiration next week. Tech, which has been a leader all year, has suddenly started to lag. Gold is running into resistance in this area, as are mining stocks.
The Fred Report - Weekly December 6, 2010
We expect continued higher prices, and less chop than most pundits would expect. This may end in a significant intermediate top. Right now, we are looking more for stability than higher rates. We believe the oil market will trade stronger next year, as renewed vigor in the world economy causes prices to rise.
The Fred Report - Mid Week Update December 1, 2010The set-up for a yearend rally in December remains intact, and this rally should start relatively soon, we think as early as today, but certainly by Friday. TLT has rallied into the projected resistance area and staged a reversal day on Tuesday. This suggests choppiness and consolidation could occur in the interest rate markets. The dollar has rallied into the middle of our projected target range and is overbought.The Fred Report - Weekly November 29, 2010Stocks have come down a bit, and the daily indicators have been reloaded enough for a yearend rally to start at any time. Note that on a closing basis the MDY is within approximately 7% of its all-time closing high in 2007, and that the QQQQ is within approximately 5% of its 2007 closing high. The TLT has fallen to our 96 area and is etching out a likely bottoming pattern.The Fred Report - Mid Week Update November 24, 2010The MDY and the QQQQ are actually the leading indexes. We remain intermediate-term bullish. We still feel the next two to four weeks are up.The Fred Report - Weekly November 22, 2010We continue to feel that we could have a stronger than expected yearend rally. We could see a range from 94 – 101 or so develop on the TLT. The GLD, DBC, and USO should start to advance this week. We would look for a short-term dollar decline that could take the dollar index back down into the mid 76’s. The Fred Report - Mid Week Update November 17, 2010Ingredients are set for a rally, and we would like to see a down open followed by a rally to signal this. Accumulation models for commodities suggest this sell off has gone too far, and we look for rallies here as well. We conclude that the primary trend on the dollar is down, and this gives added impetus to our expectation that this is a rally in downtrend.
