The Fred Report - Weekly May 7, 2012
We continue to look for a test of the 134 – 132 area on SPY, and then a summer rally - and if this is going to work, this should be the start of that pullback. Accumulation models on bonds suggest the rally in TLT will end in the 120 area, and the next significant move will be to test, and possibly exceed, the 110 area support on the downside. GLD still looks like a bottoming formation will be completed above 165, and trading there would target 174, then 185.
The Fred Report - Mid Week Update May 2, 2012
Several have asked if we would be adding money at the juncture and the short answer is we would continue to wait until we see a close above 143 on SPY. The UUP had an outside day positive reversal, and it looks like the dollar could rally a bit.
The Fred Report - Weekly April 30, 2012
This is an interesting juncture because there are some short-term overbought indications, and very short-term sentiment is indicating a quick decline in advance of a potential summer rally. Bonds look dangerous to us. Stochastics and seasonality point to an imminent rally in gold.
The Fred Report - Mid Week Update April 25, 2012
Our target range for a correction has been 134 – 132, and at the lows of this move (around 136) are around 2.00 lower, not a significant amount. We still see more correction as likely, but don’t miss the forest from the trees – if we are wrong in here the market may simply rally from this area. TLT has filled the recent downside gap from a few days ago and weekly indicators suggest another advance could begin here, which should fail in the next few weeks.
The Fred Report - Weekly April 23, 2012
The stock market looks to continue the consolidation/pullback and move lower into the end of April, prior to setting up a summer rally. French elections make this an important week for Europe in addition to G-20/World Bank/IMF meetings.
The Fred Report - Mid Week Update April 18, 2012
We suggested adding some cash back in on Monday, and would add the rest above 143.50 on SPY. The dollar continues to look attractive overall. Gold is flat and still looks like a bottom is forming.
The Fred Report - Weekly April 16, 2012
Stocks have completed what we believe is the first segment of a larger correction, and daily stochastics have declined into the buy area on most indexes and sectors. Should SPY penetrate 143 significantly, our expectation of more correction will be proved incorrect, and should SPY move significantly below 132 a more significant top is being formed. TLT should decline slightly this week, and this would set up a rally in TLT over the next two weeks.
The Fred Report - Mid Week Update April 11, 2012
The markets may become choppy and difficult here, with some rallies and declines followed by a sharp move down into early May where we will likely see a good buy signal. GLD has held support and rallied as these things have occurred – suggesting that the head and shoulders bottoming pattern on the weekly charts we have been discussing over the last several weeks is still our preferred forecast.
The Fred Report - Weekly April 09, 2012
The likelihood of a test of the 134 – 132 area continues to increase the longer the market consolidates in this area without breaking out. The TLT has continued to hold the 110-area support, setting the stage for a rally attempt, which we believe will ultimately fail. We continue to see better performance in resource-based economies, some commodity inflation, and fewer problems than Asia and Europe.
The Fred Report - Mid Week Update April 4, 2012We continue to see a correction as long as SPY remains below the upper end of our projected range – 143. We are more concerned for our trading clients and not our investing clients – we think a pullback could test 132, which is not significant for most investors. Our preferred scenario is sort of sideways drift over the next couple of weeks – followed by a sharp drop into a May low, then a good rally. We would add to small and mid-cap names if SPY trades at 132.The Fred Report - Weekly April 02, 2012We expect some choppiness, and again mention that should the market correct small and mid will do worse – but should such a drop occur we would add small cap names to accounts. We would look at a couple of international bond ETFs that should perform well over the next few months as the currency markets and international developments stabilize. We have a new 12-month objective on GLD due to the close below 175. This target is 184.The Fred Report - Mid Week Update March 28, 2012SPY continues to trade in the 140 – 143 target area, and we continue to be a bit defensive until we see a solid move above the 143 area. There are no sell patterns on the indexes, and sentiment indicators are much better placed than the last time we were here – so we remain somewhat optimistic. A look at XLE and OIH suggests a partial decline in oil is possible into May.The Fred Report - Weekly March 26, 2012While it is possible that we see some end of quarter “window dressing” we would use strength to sell underperforming stocks, and assume a bit more defensive a posture. TLT could rally here, but the chart continues to deteriorate and we would use rallies to lighten up those positions. The European currencies look like basing patterns, while the Yen looks ready to rally in a downtrend.The Fred Report - Mid Week Update March 21, 2012
Sentiment indicators continue contrarian bullish tone, and while the market is overbought there are no sell patterns as of yet. GLD could be a head and shoulders bottom, as long as GLD can stay above 158.
The Fred Report - Weekly March 19, 2012
On SPY, we would be concerned short-term by two closes below 134, and believe this rally would be over below 129. Be alert for a sharp price advance in TLT from here that should ultimately fail. GLD (SPDR Gold Trust) has moved down into support and looks to rally from this area.
The Fred Report - Mid Week Update March 14, 2012
When we look at the indicators we see market that is becoming overbought on our monthly indicators, but does not yet have a sell pattern to it. Stocks still are ok, but obviously we are closer to a short-term peak than we were in November of last year.
The Fred Report - Weekly March 12, 2012
We continue to see no sign of an intermediate top in the markets and believe investors will see our long-standing targets of SPX 1400 – 1430 before an intermediate correction could start. TLT has closed below 116 two successive times, and this suggests a move down towards 110 could occur. Japan’s economy is still primarily export driven and a cheaper Yen will contribute mightily to their success.
The Fred Report - Mid Week Update March 7, 2012
We continue to look at 132 – 130 on SPY (SPDR S&P 500 Trust) as a reasonable objective for this down-move, while acknowledging that it might be over now. A close below 89 on IYT could imply lower prices on the SPY. We will wait for a new buy signal on GLD before adding positions.
The Fred Report - Weekly March 5, 2012
The market seems poised to undergo a minor correction – this is the best chance we have seen since late November of this occurring. Gold had a sharp drop last week, and we would use this to add to gold positions. For subscribers that want investments that benefit from inflation, Australia and Canada may very well be a good idea.
The Fred Report - Mid Week Update February 29, 2012
Stocks continue to advance and the SPY has now had two successive closes above the 136.43 high close of 2011. This is a seasonally strong week for stocks and the rest of the week could see further upside acceleration. Two closes below 116 on TLT would suggest a solid drop in the T-bonds, and rise in rates.
