The Fred Report - Weekly September 24, 2012
It is likely that we see at least one more rally attempt and a new short-term high around 149 – 150, before any sort of correction really begins. If the metals are going to have a setback, this week is the week, and should GLD approach the 170 – 169 area we would look to purchase this.
The Fred Report - Mid Week Update September 19, 2012
We expect economic weakness in these last weeks before the election, and we note Bernanke MAY have been reacting to more than just current data with the magnitude of what he has done with QE3. A move for GLD above 172 would target 175 and then 184. We would add on a close above 172.
The Fred Report - Weekly September 17, 2012
The recent rally has resulted in overbought indicators such that a few choppy weeks could result. Traditional dividend and defensive stocks have been under pressure over the last week. TLT has weakened and now is as oversold as it normally gets before a rally but this rally may be short-term in nature.
The Fred Report - Mid Week Update September 12, 2012
Stocks have been in a holding pattern awaiting the German Court Ruling and the FOMC announcement. Indicator patterns continue to suggest there is risk in this market, but we still have no sort of trending sell signal. Gold and gold stocks continue to be our favorite area for new money. We also note that TLT is becoming oversold, and should stocks drop this should rise - but better looking are LQD and PGX, which continue to trade better than treasuries.
The Fred Report - Weekly September 10, 2012
Last week’s stock market rally was somewhat expected, but economically sensitive issues did better than we thought they would. The gaps in GLD and SLV are almost certainly breakaway or continuation gaps – and these are filled less often than exhaustion gaps.
The technical condition of the markets is such that unless equities “change character” and rally strongly on improved breadth and volume, the chances of a correction are way up from here into the end of the year. Gold and Silver rallied sharply at the end of August, and we continue to think they will outperform in a stock market correction.
We remain concerned should SPY penetrate the 137 area on the downside. Europe as a whole might be vulnerable this fall, and in any case if we are speculating on the long side we would especially want to hold US markets as they are better technically.
The Fred Report - Weekly August 27, 2012
Stocks pulled back as expected last week, and this should set up a strong close to August. Gold looks as if it has started the rally we have been expecting, and we maintain our six month184 target on GLD for now. BRIC countries, as well as other Emerging Markets, continue weak patterns – they remain an avoid for us.
The Fred Report - Mid Week Update August 22, 2012
The SPY has traded fully into our projected area of 140 – 143 with today’s trading action, and has staged an outside day with a negative reversal. While it certainly could be “the top” for now we maintain our strategy and view that August 31st will be the high close of the summer rally.
The Fred Report - Weekly August 20, 2012
The summer rally in US stocks continues, and we advocate sticking with strong stocks and sectors while examining portfolios carefully. Right now it looks as if TLT rallies this week, then falls off once again into the end of August, and then may mount another rally attempt.
The Fred Report - Mid Week Update August 15, 2012
We would use the last bit of this rally in August to become a touch more defensive – sell underperforming holdings, and move that money into something like SPLV or at least stronger sectors. We were expecting bonds to probe the upside and then fall below the support at 124.
The Fred Report - Weekly August 13, 2012
Overall, there is no change to our views – there is more upside in stocks and commodities into the end of August, and we will stay with these positions into the end of the month. Bonds are at a key juncture and this week could see some changes.
Stocks have continued their rally so far this week, and our forecast is for the market to be strong into the end of August. We do not believe QE3 will happen until after the election. The market is narrowing in favor of large cap stocks, which is traditionally been the precursor to a decline of magnitude.
The Fred Report - Weekly August 6, 2012Stocks had a good week last week, and we expect this “summer rally” to continue through August. GLD looks ready to test and exceed the 160 area.The Fred Report - Mid Week Update August 1, 2012We would like to see a bit more downside into the end of the week. It still looks like a strong close to August is in the cards. While both GOOG and AAPL are improving, there is some risk in both of these names and we would be a bit more cautious on tech.The Fred Report - Weekly July 30, 2012While from a theoretical standpoint it is possible that the July close will be the high close for this summer rally, sentiment and other indicators suggest continued rally into August. We think that Europe should rally into the end of August, and might be a good speculative trade here. XLE seems ready to challenge our initial objective of 72 and could then test 75.The Fred Report - Mid Week Update July 25, 2012We note our forecast has been for stocks to be down the first part of this week, and up for the second, followed by a strong August, assuming of course that this week closes stronger than where we are now. This has been a weaker than average summer rally thus far – and often this means the resulting decline can be more forceful than usual.The Fred Report - Weekly July 23, 2012Overall, we see more upside is at least possible over the next few weeks, but continue to see some warning signs. We could be facing a fall correction – and one that could last into next year. One of the problems we remain concerned about in the next year is an overbought condition in bonds that results in rising rates.The Fred Report - Mid Week Update July 18, 2012
We expect the rest of this week to be choppy but ultimately close up nicely. We are starting to see more warning signs that the stock market is weakening internally, such that we would be selling slowly into strength over the next few weeks as we see it occur.
