The Fred Report - Mid Week Update November 14, 2012
We continue to see a test of 133 – 130 by March 2013, but this area could be tested earlier than expected. We remain with our objective of 185 in 5 months on GLD.
The Fred Report - Weekly November 12, 2012
Stocks have broken support but we expect a “bobbing cork” kind of correction, so a rally here would not be a surprise. Our concern remains that the treasury market has had so many fits and starts that the long term trend may be switching from up to down – and a sharp drop could occur at any time. Gold and the commodities continue to look strong into the end of November and possibly beyond.
The Fred Report - Mid Week Update November 7, 2012
Key numbers on SPY are 142.80, then 145 and failure to close above these this week would be a concern, although unless SPY moves below 141 closing basis the market should muddle through. A close above 167 on GLD would suggest a test of 170 or so, and a close above 175 targets 185.
Equity markets are oversold, and technical indicators are about the same as last week – another rally attempt is at least possible. A successful test of 139 would give us chances for a rally. We remain cautiously positioned. The Yen has started to fall, suggesting Japan could do well in 2013.
Stocks should attempt a rally, but the set-up is such that a further decline could result after a short-term relief rally occurs. Gold has corrected into the forecast support area and is beginning to give some buying indications.
The Fred Report - Mid Week Update October 24, 2012
Our portfolio stance is defensive and we see no reason to change this. SPY has filled the gap from September 5 – 6, so if the current support zone is the low it should rally immediately, from here, on very strong breadth. Below the support zone of 141-139 suggests a test of the 133 -131 area is possible. The accumulation models on GLD remain the most attractive of the markets we follow.
The Fred Report - Weekly October 22, 2012
Until SPY penetrates 141, a test of 148-150 is not off the table and the fact that our minimum objective of 146, where we advocated writing calls, has put a lid on the second part of this rally, is a concern. One of the reasons we think a correction in stocks could occur, is that we have some strong buying indications on TLT. Models continue to suggest that gold should outperform stocks into yearend, and a close above 175 suggests our four-month objective of 184 should be met.
The Fred Report - Mid Week Update October 17, 2012
We think SPY can rally close to, but not much through 150, so we suggest writing calls on a move to 146. A down week in bonds could set the stage for a bond rally, and pullback in stocks. Gold has tried to correct as well, and we hope to see more weakness, but as mentioned our accumulation models on GLD remain quite strong so this may be it.
The Fred Report - Weekly October 15, 2012
The SPY has declined unexpectedly into support, and is oversold enough to support a short-term rally, which we believe is still likely as long as SPY has not traded below 141. Bonds have also slowed up, although if this is a down week we could see some fireworks to the upside.
The Fred Report - Mid Week Update October 10, 2012
We have been concerned about the possibility of an intermediate correction but did think this week would challenge the upside. This could still occur, however the pattern on the short-term stochastic has become more negative. In our Sector Review we have noted bifurcation in the performance of tech stocks. This sort of variation in performance generally means a sector is about to weaken and this is now happening.
The Fred Report - Weekly October 8, 2012
We should attempt a rally in the first part of the week – but failing to close the week through 150 on SPY could be a problem. Long time subscribers know that one of my biggest concerns over the next few years is that rates will start to move up, creating losses in bond portfolios. Given the configuration of oil indicators at this time, a sharp rally in the early part of this week would not be a huge surprise – indeed we would expect this.
The Fred Report - Mid Week Update October 3, 2012
Stocks have traded sideways this week, and so far our projection for a short-term rally this week looks good. We look for a rally to 149 – 150 or so this week, with concerns if the SPY trades below 139. If USO trades below 34 a move to 33 or lower is possible and would likely take a rally off the table.
The Fred Report - Weekly October 1, 2012
From a technical standpoint, there are a few concerns, the biggest being that there was little follow through, and the short-term moving averages on most indexes have gone negative. We continue to prefer LQD, although price targets have been hit – and all bonds could see some correction over the next few weeks.
The Fred Report - Mid Week Update September 26, 2012
Should 143.98 be broken it would suggest the market is weakening, and should 139 be violated this would be added confirmation that problems were getting worse. We still see an overbought market, and the chance for a correction – but not as severe.
The Fred Report - Weekly September 24, 2012
It is likely that we see at least one more rally attempt and a new short-term high around 149 – 150, before any sort of correction really begins. If the metals are going to have a setback, this week is the week, and should GLD approach the 170 – 169 area we would look to purchase this.
The Fred Report - Mid Week Update September 19, 2012
We expect economic weakness in these last weeks before the election, and we note Bernanke MAY have been reacting to more than just current data with the magnitude of what he has done with QE3. A move for GLD above 172 would target 175 and then 184. We would add on a close above 172.
The Fred Report - Weekly September 17, 2012
The recent rally has resulted in overbought indicators such that a few choppy weeks could result. Traditional dividend and defensive stocks have been under pressure over the last week. TLT has weakened and now is as oversold as it normally gets before a rally but this rally may be short-term in nature.
The Fred Report - Mid Week Update September 12, 2012
Stocks have been in a holding pattern awaiting the German Court Ruling and the FOMC announcement. Indicator patterns continue to suggest there is risk in this market, but we still have no sort of trending sell signal. Gold and gold stocks continue to be our favorite area for new money. We also note that TLT is becoming oversold, and should stocks drop this should rise - but better looking are LQD and PGX, which continue to trade better than treasuries.
The Fred Report - Weekly September 10, 2012
Last week’s stock market rally was somewhat expected, but economically sensitive issues did better than we thought they would. The gaps in GLD and SLV are almost certainly breakaway or continuation gaps – and these are filled less often than exhaustion gaps.
