The Fred Report - Mid Week Update October 9, 2013Stocks have continued to pull back and closed below the key 166 area on Tuesday. This opens the door to lower prices and a test of the 162 – 160 area looks likely. TNX still has some room and could still test the 23 area but this is happening slower than we would like to see, and there is a lot of support at the 26 – 25.50 area, below. Coal is actually weaker than oil and the chart is avoid for now.The Fred Report - Weekly October 7, 2013We discuss the stock indexes and the key support level at 166. A break of this would suggest lower prices, and while we expect his prices have been resilient enough to continue dollar cost averaging into stocks. Those adding money here should consider adding to QQQ, IYW, or PSCT, as technology looks positive.The Fred Report - Mid Week Update October 2, 2013
We have no change to our forecast on stocks and bonds. We remain bullish on Gold as long as the lows in the 115 area on GLD are not exceeded and would add positions slowly in this area. We continue to think t is a base above a base with a target of 540 or so.
The Fred Report - Weekly September 30, 2013We feel comfortable with our forecast of a drop in October and a rally back for the end of 2013. The three ETFs that interest us for bonds in 2014 are BWX, CWB, and PCY.The Fred Report - Mid Week Update September 25, 2013We have had an up September, at least so far, and this means (as we mentioned at the beginning of September) that October is high-risk month that should be down. We remain on a strong buy signal, on a technical basis, in the interest rate market.The Fred Report - Weekly September 23, 2013We remain concerned that a strong September will lead to a weaker than expected October. Our fears that a major bear market in bonds is or has started remain. Areas that could be tested are 124 – 126 on GLD, and we would look to add at those levels. We continue to like gold but the next few weeks could see volatility.The Fred Report - Mid Week Update September 18, 2013The combination of Fed announcements and options expiration make very short-term prediction difficult, so we stand with our forecast in the weekly: up at the beginning of the week, and down at the end. Perhaps most important, bonds continue to act better than most expect, and the big surprise could be a rally on the Fed news.The Fred Report - Weekly September 16, 2013We still have outstanding price projections on SPY around 176, and believe that if this area is going to be tested, this rally should get under way this week. It would appear that the sentiment backdrop may be factoring this week’s bond news, and the reaction to the news could surprise the market, at least from a sentiment standpoint. Gold moved lower and challenged the 126 area looked for in prior letters. It looks to have made a spike bottom, and advisors should start to add GLD to portfolios at this time.The Fred Report - Mid Week Update September 11, 2013Stocks are rallying through the first part of September as forecast and an up September looks to be a problem for October, which should be a down month if this continues. Stocks removed from the Dow tend to outperform once removed, on a one to two year basis. USO can go back to 33 to 34 easily and a break of 37.60 would imply this should occur.The Fred Report - Weekly September 9, 2013
We still believe the market will close at these levels at the end of the year, but are comfortable holding cash for now, with the idea of deploying it lower down between now and the end of 2013. The first part of the week for TLT may be down, but any new closing low on TLT that is revalidated would be a strong trading buy.
The Fred Report - Weekly September 3, 2013We still feel comfortable with our forecast that the second half of 2013 is going to be less robust than the first. Unless TLT moves quickly above 106.80, a test of 104.30 is possible and would be a great opportunity to buy this for a rally.The Fred Report - Mid Week Update August 28, 2013We remain intermediate-term defensive in portfolios, and are still comfortable with our November 2012 forecast that the first half of 2013 will be stronger than the second. We remain long-term bond bears, but could see one heck of a trading rally in these. We would use current strength to sell oil and put this money into natural gas by Friday.The Fred Report - Weekly August 26, 2013This week should be seasonally strong, and we would use strength to write calls and eliminate underperforming positions. We are advocating utilization of rallies to sell risky bonds on, and move into less risky fixed income.The Fred Report - Mid Week Update August 21, 2013
Indicators are oversold enough for a tradable rally. We remain defensive intermediate-term. Should TNX move up again, and make new highs, that would be a powerful sign that this buy signal on bonds is going to fail. It appears that FXY should slowly rise to attack the 105 area as forecast.
The Fred Report - Weekly August 19, 2013US stocks are quite oversold and should rally, but concerns remain about longer-term overbought conditions and sentiment. Bond prices should move up immediately, this week, from this area. Should this occur, we still have targets in the 23.20 or 23.30 area on TNX.The Fred Report - Mid Week Update August 14, 2013We would like to see this market show some “get up and go” but it has to happen relatively soon, or we should see some corrective behavior. There is a chance for a bond rally but so far the reaction to this signal suggests the bond bull market of the last 30 years has either breathed its last, or is about to. GLD still could test the 122 area within the context of this bottoming process but it DOES look like a bottoming process.The Fred Report - Weekly August 12, 2013The market is still holding support and summer rally targets remain, but we continue to be defensive as sentiment indicators suggest this rally is “long in the tooth”. This is such an interesting juncture for bonds, because if this bond buy signal we have fails, or the rally is insipid, it would be additional confirmation that our big fear in this market is occurring (and this is that the end of the 30 year bond bull market is upon us).The Fred Report - Mid Week Update August 7, 2013
SPY has tested, and so far held, very short-term support at 169. As long as this holds the short-term trend is up – below that paves the way for 167.50 and below THAT suggests weakness into September. Unless bonds rally we again iterate concerns that things could be worse in the interest rate markets than people believe.
PCY has been in our Bucket List Bond portfolio, and is a favored way to invest in emerging market debt. The fact that the smaller Japanese ETFs have so far remained above their support points is a long-term positive for Japan.
