Stocks had a bad day Friday, failing at the 210 – 212 area on SPY and pulling back once again. This area is resistance and the daily stochastic is turning negative on this movement. We prefer to use our SPY support levels of 204, then 198 as areas of support. If these break, then a decline could be violent due to low bearish sentiment.
We do expect one more good shot up to new highs on the dollar, even if they are just intraday highs. Alcoa has satisfied the downside projections we made, and should rebound.
Stocks are interesting here. Longer-term indicators remain precariously placed, but short-term indicators suggest a bit more rally as daily stochastics are trending up, although in the 70’s. If the Euro is going to put on another leg down, now is when it should occur.
The Fred Report - Weekly April 6, 2015We certainly can see the chance for further correction, but in order for this to happen we need to see SPY close below the 204, then 198 area. Oil stock ETFs might be worthwhile investing in slowly, as these could perform well in a market correction, and strongly if there is no correction, or off the bottom of a correction if there is one.The Fred Report - Mid Week Update April 1, 2015
While this is less conclusive than we would have wished our overall conclusion is that stocks should rally for the first part of April but after that we have concerns. Indicators here suggest a fairly substantial rally in the oil whether or not this is the ultimate low.
How we close the Quarter will determine what our forecast is for the remainder of the first half of 2015. Below 205.54 and our forecast for a down quarter will be satisfied, while above that number would strongly suggest a decline into the May/June timeframe. JJG has got strong bottoming signs.
The most important part of our forecast is an up close to this quarter, i.e. above 205.54 on SPY. TLT has finally rallied to the 132.50 area we have been forecasting for this rebound, and traders should start to sell between here and 134.
The Fred Report - Weekly March 23, 2015We still see some market turmoil and the chance of a correction in the second quarter but probably in the May – June timeframe. Although various oil ETFs have what look like tradable bottoms on the daily charts, our forecast is for a new monthly closing low to end the decline and create a strong investment opportunity in Q2.The Fred Report - Mid Week Update March 18, 2015Targets for the week have almost been hit at 209 to 210 and will not be raised. Daily stochastics are, once again, in buy mode suggesting some more rally is possible. We could also see one more sharp drop in the whole metals complex and we would look to buy that – in other words we would hold off on adding to positions here.The Fred Report - Weekly March 16, 2015U.S. stocks actually closed with a short-term buy signal so we could see a rally from this area. Our perpetual contract is near the January low but has not yet exceeded it and we have been looking for January’s low to be exceeded for several months. In fact we are looking for new monthly closing lows on oil. We would add some new money to the Japanese ETFs that are not hedging the Yen, especially on dips.The Fred Report - Mid Week Update March 11, 2015Deploy cash? We would divide money into thirds and consider adding one-third in this area, between 205 and 204. Other points would be 198.50 and below the 198-area. If in fact the “reason” for this stock market decline is a “surging dollar” there could be a quick change in this outcome.The Fred Report - Weekly March 9, 2015Traders should be very cautious here – we have mentioned that investors should hold some cash and we would wait to deploy this. The long-term trend in bonds remains up unless the 122 – 120 TLT area is broken. Our forecast on oil is for a divergence bottom, where price makes new closing lows, and momentum makes a higher low may come into play sooner than we expected.The Fred Report - Mid Week Update March 4, 2015US stocks are beginning the week in choppy fashion and this is positive for March. GLD remains on a buy signal but unless through 117 on a closing basis we may see a bit more downside. Careful here.The Fred Report - Weekly March 2, 2015
Stocks had an up month in February, and some of this strength should carry over into March after the market resolves a short-term overbought condition. We continue to expect this TLT rally to retest our sell point of 134 for traders, but we will become more cautious should TLT decline to a new correction low below 125.90.
The Fred Report - Mid Week Update February 25, 2015TLT has been weaker than expected but is finally starting to rally. We continue to expect a test of 132 – 134, and traders who did not sell on the first run up to 134 might consider sale should these levels be hit. The daily stochastic on USO is now in the buy zone, and if it turns up we should see upside behavior into the end of the week and rally into March as we have noted.The Fred Report - Weekly February 23, 2015Stocks look like an end of month rally should occur, and we would expect an up week. We will give TLT another week to rally, but the longer this takes the worse this market looks. A down close on GLD for February suggests rally possibilities for March so we will watch accordingly.The Fred Report - Weekly February 17, 2015We maintain our target range of 223 – 229 on SPY as well as the view that the upper end of this will probably not be in play until a correction occurs. We would expect at least a retest of the 134 area on TLT before further decline. We expect oil to trend up through the end of February.The Fred Report - Mid Week Update February 11, 2015Stocks are up on the week, and we expect this to continue through the end of the week. The daily stochastic on GLD is now oversold and we have two days that have held support. Should the daily stochastic turn up we would expect a rally. We would move stops on USO for traders to 17 or so, near breakeven.The Fred Report - Weekly February 9, 2015This is going to be an interesting week, as indicators present a mixed picture that we believe will be resolved to the upside. Failure to rally back above134 this week would be a concern on bonds, and suggest a peak is in for at least the first part of 2015. We continue to look for the 21 – 22 area on USO in this rally, although it may do better than that ultimately.
