Weekly Report

This is Options Expiration week and therefore the trading could be difficult coupled with the FOMC.  TLT is holding the 90-area, as long as this area can hold the equity markets are fine.

We have been expecting stocks to pull back, and we have seen this in blue chip names but not in the NASDAQ.  Bonds are weak enough that a break here could cause trouble.

We could see some more short-term pullback this week, but we are probably close to a short-term low.  While interest rates remain weak, TLT could still hit 95 by yearend.

We still think the market should move higher into yearend.  Advisors should not overlook Mid Cap.

This may be the only down/sideways week we have in December. We have no real changes in opinion on equities.  TLT is very important for 2025, as a big break of 90 sets up problems, in our view.

Now you are seeing enough to suggest a short-term pullback is likely, but since a yearend advance should follow this pullback, we would not be sellers.  Note that the biggest component of DBC is oil, and this has just passed into a period of seasonal strength.

For investors, we will hold, but it is likely we will see some pullback into another tradable low in early December.  In keeping with Thanksgiving traditions at The FRED Report, we will review Turkey and Grease Greece today.

Breadth indicators suggest that stocks should rally into Wednesday of Thanksgiving week at least.  MLP’S have started to trade very well, and we have not covered them in a while. These are a great income vehicle.

We are not quite oversold enough to say that a bottom is in – stochastics need a bit more time.  Let’s see if XLV can rally from here – a move up to 144 or above would tend to repair this chart.

We have been looking for this decline, and if things continue to work as we forecast, this coming week should be choppy and indicators should then set up for a rally Thanksgiving week.  we would use CORN for portfolios if you want an interesting commodity allocation.

We would use another down day to start or add to positions in equities. TLT is still trying to rally, and a close above 91.10 would suggest this is going to hold and rally next week. The big item of interest is GLD, which closed (of course!) at 240, our key number for support.

Indicators are such that we could see a week or two of consolidation.  Small Cap has continued to show accumulation improvement.

We will have lots to talk about on tomorrow’s weekly call with the election of Donald J. Trump as president for a second term along with the Republicans gaining control of the Senate and potentially the House.

This is the last Weekly before the election, and it is still impossible to say the market is suggesting which candidate will win. Of the two stocks being removed from the Dow 30 Industrials, we think that INTC is a better bet for a stock leaving the index and outperform, but use risk management.

From the market’s point of view, in our opinion, the result of this election is still a tossup.

We talk about Biotech, an area we want to watch for a buying opportunity just before the 2024 election.  We look at uranium, a key component of “green energy”, which should perform well over the next year regardless of which candidate wins the election.

Where we have been surprised is TLT, which has moved down through support and effectively stopped us out of long positions.

We continue to see SPY up and outperforming QQQ, and IJR.  We show the monthly chart of UUP back to 2008, so you can see that the dollar has been in a long-term uptrend. This is interesting because most of the popular press suggests the trend on the dollar has been down.

TLT trading is as we anticipated, and above 95.40 it should test 97 to 98.  It is possible that XLF made a short-term peak on positive earnings news Tuesday.

TLT is set up for a sharp rally, and this might impact stocks negatively, as they are still trading in opposite directions.